287
FXUS66 KPQR 111739
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1039 AM PDT THU JUN 11 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PACIFIC THEN WESTERN WA/OR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
USHERING IN A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY AND WARM/HOT CONDITIONS.
AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO,
WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE, CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY, AND PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OF 95-100 DEGREES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S OR WARMER, RESULTING IN MAJOR
HEATRISK. HEAT RELATED IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH
THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WE BEGIN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS
THE INLAND VALLEYS - A 4-8 DEGREE JUMP FROM YESTERDAY
(WEDNESDAY). THIS IS ALL THANKS TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD AND PUSH CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP
TO LARGELY BE A REPEAT OF THURSDAY, ALBEIT 1-3 DEGREES WARMER AS
500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY.
WHILE THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW REGIME IN PLACE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT, IT WILL
FACILITATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE FROM CASCADE LOCKS EASTWARD, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST AS
HIGH AS 30-35 MPH. -99/23
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
HEAT IMPACTS
DRIVE THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED BY A
THREE TO FOUR DAY HEAT EVENT WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR THUS FAR EXPECTED. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST GRADUALLY NUDGES OVERHEAD PINCHING OFF
MOST OF OUR ONSHORE INFLUENCE AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES RISE
SHARPLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE GREATER
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO, WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE, CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS OF 95-100 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S OR WARMER, RESULTING IN A MAJOR HEATRISK. REMAINING INLAND
VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WA AND NORTHWEST OR HAVE A
MODERATE HEATRISK, MAINLY DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS A MINOR HEATRISK, WHILE INLAND
COASTAL COMMUNITIES SUCH AS ASTORIA AND TILLAMOOK HAVE A
MODERATE HEATRISK.
FROM THE SLIGHT RISE IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
TEMPERATURES SEEN YESTERDAY (WEDNESDAY), THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE
REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
EXTREME HEAT WATCH. CONFIDENCE HAS ALSO INCREASED THAT TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN RATHER TOASTY (90S), ALTHOUGH STILL NOT NEARLY AS
HOT AS MONDAY. MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT, MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO
START THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST OF ANY DAYS DURING THE
HEAT EVENT ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN
PLACE AND A WARM START TO THE DAY SHOULD THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DELAY ANY FURTHER, AFTERNOON HIGHS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE NEARLY AS WARM AS MONDAY. THE NBM CURRENTLY
SHOWS A 20-50% CHANCE FOR HIGHS OF 95 DEGREES OR WARMER ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO, AND A 10-15% CHANCE FOR THE COWLITZ VALLEY, LOWER
COLUMBIA, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
PROBABILITIES FOR A MAJOR HEATRISK OR HIGHER ON TUESDAY RANGE
BETWEEN 15-40% IN THESE AREAS, HIGHEST IN THE PORTLAND METRO.
ANYONE WHO IS SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR THOSE WHO HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR AND TAKES STEPS TO MITIGATE POTENTIAL HEAT
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TEMPERATURES REALLY
RAMP UP. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO SEEK RELIEF BY SWIMMING IN LOCAL
AREA RIVERS AND/OR LAKES TO COOL OFF, BE MINDFUL OF COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES AND SWIFT CURRENTS WHICH CAN BECOME LIFE
THREATENING IF PRECAUTIONS LIKE WEARING A LIFE JACKET ARE NOT
TAKEN.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN AREAS WITH CURED GRASSES AND FINER FUELS.
A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF
SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST STARTING ON SATURDAY HELPING
TO STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
THIS WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WESTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE/CASCADES GAPS AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AS DAYTIME
HIGHS INCREASE, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE. GIVEN
THE HOT, DRY, BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, THERE ARE INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BE
AWARE OF POTENTIAL IGNITION SOURCES SUCH AS CHAINS DRAGGING ON
THE PAVEMENT, HOT VEHICLE COMPONENTS, AS WELL AS CIGARETTE BUTTS
AS THESE COULD EASILY RESULT IN THE IGNITION OF CURED GRASSES
AND DRY, FINE FUELS. LIVE VEGETATION AND LARGER FUELS MAY NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO DRY OUT PRIOR TO THE DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS, BUT THIS IS A VARIABLE THAT IS BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED BY OUR STATE AND FEDERAL FIRE PARTNERS.
FORTUNATELY, TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE LAST HOT DAY OF THE HEAT
EVENT. COME WEDNESDAY, JUNE 17, ENSEMBLE MODELING SYSTEMS DO
DEPICT THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING EASTWARD
BRINGING A RETURN OF RELATIVELY COOLER WESTERLY FLOW. THAT SAID,
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS - HIGHS NOW
APPEAR TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE INLAND
VALLEYS. THE SLOW COOLING TREND LIKELY (70-80%) EXTENDS INTO
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL. -99/23
AVIATION
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS BENEATH LARGELY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SEE DIURNAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS RISING
TO 5-10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EASING TO 3 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT
INLAND. AT THE COAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MOST LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST. CHANCES FOR MVFR
CIGS BENEATH LOW MARINE CLOUDS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER
COLUMBIA RIVER AFTER 09-12Z, WITH CHANCES OVER 50% ONLY AT KAST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS BENEATH LARGELY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. DIURNAL NORTHWEST WINDS RISE TO 6-8 KT THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN EASE TO 3 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. LOW COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS AT 2-3 KFT IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH VERY LOW
CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS. -36
MARINE
EXPECT A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN TO
TAKE HOLD THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL
ALLOW DIURNAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN, PEAKING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STARTING THIS AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING MORE
NOTICEABLE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT SOUTH OF CAPE
FOULWEATHER, AND TRENDING WEAKER TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THESE
CONDITIONS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INNER
AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FOULWEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SMALL CRAFT
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS CONTINUE TO HOLD AROUND 4-7 FT AT 9-11 SECONDS
WITH A PERSISTENT WESTERLY SWELL. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT
AT THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER SWELL TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE OF THE ARRIVAL AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. -99
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ108>115-120.
WA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WAZ206-207-209.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ253-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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