021
FXUS66 KPQR 112202
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PACIFIC THEN WESTERN WA/OR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
USHERING IN A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY AND WARM/HOT CONDITIONS.
AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO,
WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE, CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY, AND PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OF 95-100 DEGREES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S OR WARMER, RESULTING IN MAJOR
HEATRISK. HEAT RELATED IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH
THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. 500 MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THIS RIDGING PATTERN WHICH LEADS TO A
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WARMING AND DRYING EACH DAY. FRIDAY WILL BE
ESSENTIALLY A RINSE AND REPEAT OF TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S. ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE A
SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES WHERE THE MEDIAN HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE
NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S, SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN THE UPPER 80S, AND ALONG THE COAST IN THE
70S. OVERALL, SATURDAY SITS UNDER A MODERATE HEATRISK.
THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK WITHIN THE GREATER
PORTLAND-VANCOUVER METRO, BUT INTERESTINGLY, THERE IS A AROUND A
30-40% CHANCE WITHIN THE LANE COUNTY COAST RANGE. LIKELY THIS IS
DUE TO INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR ALOFT.
NOW, WITH THIS PATTERN DEVELOPING, THERE WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS
EASTERLY OFFSHORE WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO GET BREEZY ON
SATURDAY WITHIN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY (WHERE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY). THESE
SPEEDS ARE NOT UNUSUAL THOUGH AND NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
-27
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
HEAT REMAINS THE MAIN
HEADLINE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RAMP UP
CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ON SUNDAY AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ALIGNING OVER THE
COAST RANGE. THIS ALIGNMENT WILL COINCIDE WITH A THERMAL
THROUGH (LOW PRESSURE CAUSED BY HIGH TEMPERATURES) WHICH WILL BE
A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT
FIRST, LET'S LOOK AT THOSE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEING
THE HOTTEST OF THE NEXT WEEK, AND MONDAY BEING THE PEAK HEATING
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY BASED ON LOCATION BUT OVERALL, THERE
ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR RECORDS TO BE BROKEN OR TIED. THESE
RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW IN A DESIGNATED "CLIMATE" SECTION. AS
IT STANDS, REACHING 100 DEG ON MONDAY WITH AROUND A 25% CHANCE
IN THE GREATER-PORTLAND METRO. THE COAST COULD BE IMPACTED AS
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN AREAS LIKE
TILLAMOOK, A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES F IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. DOWNSLOPING EAST WINDS WILL AMPLIFY TEMPERATURE RISES
ALONG THE COAST AND WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THERE IS A MIXED BAG OF MODERATE AND MAJOR HEATRISK, BUT IN THE
INDUSTRIAL AREAS OF PORTLAND THERE IS ALSO A 10% CHANCE OF
EXTREME HEATRISK. THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED. THE
CONSIDERATION BEING TAKEN AT THIS POINT ARE THE LOCATIONS THAT
MAY BE IMPACTED AND OUR CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR THE TEMPERATURES.
A FACTOR TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT IN THIS FORECAST ARE ALSO THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. IN GENERAL, WE ARE SEEING OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID-60S AND EVEN NEAR 70 DEGREES ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAVE LITTLE TO NO
RELIEF OVERNIGHT. HEATRISK TAKES THIS INTO ACCOUNT IN THE
CALCULATION BUT IN THIS CASE, THOSE TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING
RIGHT ON A THRESHOLD. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS A LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THE OVERALL RISK WILL BE THERE.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN AREAS WITH CURED GRASSES AND FINER FUELS.
A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF
SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST STARTING ON SATURDAY HELPING
TO STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
THIS WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WESTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE/CASCADES GAPS AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AS DAYTIME
HIGHS INCREASE, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE. GIVEN
THE HOT, DRY, BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, THERE ARE INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BASED ON FEEDBACK FROM AREA PARTNERS, FUELS ARE NOT QUITE CURED
YET, BUT WE ARE UNSURE HOW THE DAYS OF DRYING AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THEM. BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL IGNITION
SOURCES SUCH AS CHAINS DRAGGING ON THE PAVEMENT, HOT VEHICLE
COMPONENTS, AS WELL AS CIGARETTE BUTTS AS THESE COULD EASILY
RESULT IN THE IGNITION OF CURED GRASSES AND DRY, FINE FUELS.
LIVE VEGETATION AND LARGER FUELS MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO DRY
OUT PRIOR TO THE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, BUT THIS IS A
VARIABLE THAT IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY OUR STATE AND
FEDERAL FIRE PARTNERS.
STARTING TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL START TO DECREASE. THIS IS
DUE TO A TREND TOWARDS A TROUGHING PATTERN FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. WHILE ABOUT HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SUGGEST A
TROUGH, THE OTHER HALF MAINTAIN THE RIDGING PATTERN. THEREFORE,
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN REGARDS TO JUST HOW MUCH COOLER WE
WILL BE ON TUESDAY. IT IS ALSO NOT UNCOMMON FOR MODELS TO
DEGRADE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGES LIKE THIS TOO EARLY. BECAUSE
THERE IS NOT A ROBUST SYSTEM MOVING IN, SEEING A DEGRADATION OF
THE RIDGE IS GOING TO BE LESS DRASTIC. ON TUESDAY, THE MOST
LIKELY RANGE (25TH-75TH PERCENTILE) RANGES FROM 85-90 DEG F
WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND 60-65 DEG F ALONG THE COAST.
THE 90TH PERCENTILE THOUGH, WHICH WOULD BE THE SITUATION WHERE
THE RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS POSITION, WOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 92-94
DEG F IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NOT HEAT FANS, AS WE MOVE INTO
WEDNESDAY, ONSHORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNS ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. -27
AVIATION
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS BENEATH LARGELY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SEE DIURNAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON EASE TO 3 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT INLAND.
AT THE COAST, SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OF 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST WILL
ALSO EASE TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS BENEATH
LOW MARINE CLOUDS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER AFTER 09-12Z, WITH CHANCES OVER 50% ONLY AT KAST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS BENEATH LARGELY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. DIURNAL NORTHWEST WINDS OF 6-8 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL EASE TO 3 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. LOW COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS AT 2-3 KFT IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH VERY LOW
CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS. -36
MARINE
EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. DIURNAL NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN, PEAKING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STARTING
TODAY, BUT BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT SOUTH OF
CAPE FOULWEATHER WILL TREND WEAKER TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THESE
CONDITIONS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT HANDFUL OF DAYS. SEAS CONTINUE TO HOLD AROUND 4-7 FT AT 9-11
SECONDS WITH A PERSISTENT WESTERLY SWELL. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
BRINGS A RETURN OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND A HIGHER CHANCE OF
ELEVATED SEAS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PATTERN CHANGE IS LOW. -36/99
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY, JUNE 14
PORTLAND INT'L 89F (1988)
VANCOUVER, WA 93F (1986)
HILLSBORO 96F (1961)
MCMINNVILLE 93F (1986)
SALEM 92F (1961)
EUGENE 92F (1914)
ASTORIA 86F (1914)
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY, JUNE 15
PORTLAND INT'L 95F (1966)
VANCOUVER, WA 95F (1930, 1966)
HILLSBORO 99F (1961)
MCMINNVILLE 96F (1961)
SALEM100F (1966)
EUGENE 96F (1966)
ASTORIA 91F (1966)
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ108>115-120.
WA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WAZ206-207-209.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ252-272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ253-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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