466
FXUS66 KPQR 140936
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
236 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER
THE REGION, LEADING TO A FEW DAYS OF HOT TEMPERATURES, WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND BREEZY WINDS. PEAK HEATING
DAYS ARE TODAY AND MONDAY WITH MINIMAL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE
RELIEF. EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND-
VANCOUVER METRO AND COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE, WITH THE COAST ONLY
BEING ON SUNDAY. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT,
EASING ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES DROP AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY, THOUGH REMAIN WARM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
JUST AS FORECAST, HIGH
PRESSURE HAS AMPLIFIED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, AS HAS A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN OR
AND WA. PEAK DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WERE RIGHT ON
TRACK WITH THE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES PEAKED A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN SOME LOCATIONS
DUE TO ENHANCED WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE WESTERN
COAST RANGE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FOR INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND ANYWHERE FROM THE 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG
THE COAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY ARE ANYWHERE FROM 5
TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES SEEING THE WIDEST RANGE WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DUE TO A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION
PREVENTING COOLING.
EXPECT EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PACNW COAST. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE (70-95+% CHANCE) THAT TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ABOVE 95
DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE COAST RANGE EACH DAY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD EVEN EXCEED 100
DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. BEST CHANCES TODAY ARE MAINLY IN
A SMALL STRETCH OF AREA JUST WEST OF THE WEST HILLS TO AROUND
AURORA AT AROUND A 20-45% CHANCE. THE AREA AND PROBABILITIES
EXPAND ON MONDAY FROM SALEM NORTH TO HILLSBORO AT 50-75% CHANCE,
THOUGH THE PORTLAND METRO EAST OF THE WEST HILLS HAS ONLY A
30-55% CHANCE, AS DO THE CORVALLIS AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE
COAST RANGE. TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR THE COAST AS
DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A 50-75%
CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN ASTORIA, TILLAMOOK, PACIFIC
CITY, AND LINCOLN CITY.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER
SIDE, NOT ALLOWING MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS, INCLUDING THE COAST, REMAINING
ABOVE 60 DEGREES WITH A MODERATE CONFIDENCE (50-65% CHANCE) THAT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 65 DEGREES. THERE'S EVEN A 20-35%
CHANCE THAT LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA, WESTERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, AND CENTRAL OR COAST RANGE REMAIN ABOVE 70
DEGREES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THERE'S
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS REMAIN ABOVE
60 DEGREES WITH 35-45% CHANCE THE PORTLAND METRO AREA AND EUGENE
AREA REMAIN ABOVE 65 DEGREES.
THE COMBINATION OF HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HIGH HEATRISK
THROUGH MONDAY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS MEANS
MOST OF THE GENERAL POPULATION WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO AIR
CONDITIONING AND THOSE SPENDING EXTENDED TIME OUTDOORS. HEAT IS
ONE OF THE LEADING CAUSES OF WEATHER-RELATED FATALITIES, SO IT
IS CRITICAL TO PROTECT YOURSELF AND LOVED ONES FROM THE HEAT BY
STAYING HYDRATED, FINDING LOCATIONS WITH AIR CONDITIONING, AND
CHECKING ON YOUR NEIGHBORS. ALSO, AREA WATERWAYS ARE STILL
VERY COLD, SO IT IS VITAL TO WEAR LIFE VESTS AND REMAIN AWARE OF
SIGNS OF HYPOTHERMIA IF PLANNING ON SPENDING TIME NEAR LAKES AND
RIVERS.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND
WESTERN CASCADE GAPS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, AS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INCREASE, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO
DECREASE TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS. THIS IS PRODUCING SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN AREAS WITH CURED GRASSES AND FINER FUELS
INTO MONDAY DUE TO HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. BASED ON
FEEDBACK FROM AREA PARTNERS, FUELS ARE NOT QUITE CURED ENOUGH TO
CONSIDER ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS AT THIS POINT, BUT THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE FUELS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CONTINUOUS
DAYS OF DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS. BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL IGNITION
SOURCES SUCH AS VEHICLE CHAINS DRAGGING ON THE PAVEMENT, HOT
VEHICLE COMPONENTS, SPARKS CREATED BY POWER TOOLS, AND CIGARETTE
BUTTS AS ALL OF THESE COULD EASILY RESULT IN THE IGNITION OF
CURED GRASSES AND DRY, FINE FUELS. LIVE VEGETATION AND LARGER
FUELS MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO DRY OUT PRIOR TO THE DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS, BUT THIS IS A VARIABLE THAT IS BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED BY OUR STATE AND FEDERAL FIRE PARTNERS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INDICATING THAT A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA OFF OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN ALASKA COAST WILL BREAK DOWN
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN PACIFIC
AS WELL AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY.
THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN,
STRONGER IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA, AS WELL AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS, THOUGH
STILL REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND UPPER 70S FOR THE SW WA LOWLANDS. HEAT
IMPACTS STILL REMAIN A CONCERN ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WARMER
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES AN A 60-90% CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE 85 DEGREES. WHILE THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE WHETHER THE HEAT REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH THREAT
FOR THESE HAZARDS. AN AREA THAT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST MODERATE
HEATRISK ON TUESDAY IS THE GREATER PORTLAND- VANCOUVER METRO
AREA AND OTHER URBAN CENTERS, LIKELY DUE TO THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND EFFECT.
GENERAL UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS SLATED TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACCORDING TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
WITH POTENTIALLY VERY WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
WEEK. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHING, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WARM AND DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING COASTAL STRATUS. IN GENERAL, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS, 60S ALONG THE
COAST, AND 60S TO 70S OVER THE TERRAIN. -03/27
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND 5 KT OR LESS INLAND WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. AFTER 14-16Z SUN, OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN
AND SUPPORT BREEZY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. AFTER
01-03Z MON, WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
EASE.
IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 90 TO 100 DEGREES F ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BE AWARE OF HIGH
DENSITY ALTITUDE WHICH MAY REDUCE AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 5 KT OVERNIGHT, TURNING MORE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 15-18Z SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WEAKEN IN THE EVENING AFTER 01-03Z
MON. -10/03
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN THE SUMMERTIME
PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A
STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN TODAY. AS SUCH,
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KT SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON. WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NORTHERLIES PEAK EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. SEAS AROUND 4 TO 8 FT AT 7-10 SECONDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE NORTHERLY WIND CHOP. -DH/03
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY, JUNE 14
HIGH TEMPERATURES: WARM LOW TEMPERATURES:
PORTLAND INT'L 89F (1988) 62F (1985)
VANCOUVER, WA 93F (1986) 61F (1931)
HILLSBORO 96F (1961) 60F (1963)
MCMINNVILLE 93F (1986) 59F (1936)
SALEM 92F (1961) 59F (1936)
EUGENE 92F (1914) 57F (1993)
ASTORIA 86F (1914) 58F (1972)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY,
JUNE 15
HIGH TEMPERATURES: WARM LOW TEMPERATURES:
PORTLAND INT'L 95F (1966) 60F (1969)
VANCOUVER, WA 95F (1930, 1966) 62F (1961)
HILLSBORO 99F (1961) 60F (1963)
MCMINNVILLE 96F (1961) 59F (1936)
SALEM100F (1966) 59F (1931)
EUGENE 96F (1966) 60F (1961)
ASTORIA 91F (1966) 58F (1997)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY,
JUNE 16
HIGH TEMPERATURES: WARM LOW TEMPERATURES:
PORTLAND INT'L 95F (1958) 60F (2012)
VANCOUVER, WA 92F (1961) 67F (1966)
HILLSBORO100F (1961) 65F (1961)
MCMINNVILLE 98F (1961) 59F (1966)
SALEM 97F (1961) 61F (1961)
EUGENE 95F (1961) 62F (1961)
ASTORIA 87F (1958) 59F (1997)
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ORZ101>103.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ORZ104>108-113>119-121>125.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR ORZ109>112-120.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR WAZ201.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
WAZ202>205-208-210.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR WAZ206-207-209.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ252-253-272-
273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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