060
FXUS66 KPQR 160926
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TODAY, BRINGING SLIGHT RELIEF
FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INDICATE THAT ONSHORE FLOW
HAS RETURNED TO NW OR AND SW WA, AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MARINE STRATUS SLOWLY NEARING THE COAST DUE TO THIS. MARINE
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE NW OR AND SW WA COAST THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE A DAILY FIXTURE ALONG THE COAST
AGAIN. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING RELIEF FROM THE RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 8-20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EVEN THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS, HIGH
PRESSURE STILL REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SO TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REMAIN WARMER THAN DAILY NORMALS FOR MID JUNE (MID
60S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 70S FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS) FOR
THE INTERIOR. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO
WA TODAY AND TOMORROW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PUSHES WEST,
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND 60S ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 50S.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS SHIFTS A BIT EAST AGAIN ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS WITH A 20-45% CHANCE OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90
DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS BETWEEN CORVALLIS AND VANCOUVER. BY
FRIDAY, ENSEMBLES INDICATE BROAD YET WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE PACNW REMAINING UNDER
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE. PROBABILITIES INDICATE VERY SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO THURSDAY, THOUGH THE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS LARGER DEPENDING ON THE FINAL STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE TROUGHING. THE WEAK TROUGHING IS SLATED TO MOVE
INLAND SATURDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO LOWER AGAIN TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION SIGNAL WITH THIS
TROUGH EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. AROUND 55% OF MEMBERS SUGGEST TROUGHING WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION WITH THE OTHER 45% INDICATING THE TROUGH
BEGINS MOVING EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
BEGINNING TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE
TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS ANYWHERE FROM THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS, WITH THE NBM DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
SUGGESTING LOW TO MID 80S. ON MONDAY, 70% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE SOME LEVEL OF RIDGING OVER THE PACNW WITH 30%
SUGGESTING TROUGHING CONTINUES. THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE
TEMPERATURE SPREAD FOR MONDAY IS STILL PRETTY LARGE, BUT THE
ENTIRE DISTRIBUTION IS WARMER THAN SUNDAY: IN THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 90S FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
HIGHER NUMBER OF MEMBERS INDICATING RIDGING AND THEREFORE
WARMING, THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER, NBM DETERMINISTIC FORECAST INCREASES TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. PROBABILITIES FOR
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES INCREASE FROM 5-30% ON SUNDAY
TO 35-65% ON MONDAY, HIGHEST PROBABILITIES BETWEEN CORVALLIS AND
VANCOUVER.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS
ON THE DRY AND WARM SIDE WITH MODERATE HEATRISK FOR PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY. THOSE
SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE ACCESS
TO AIR CONDITIONING OR HYDRATION, SHOULD TAKE STEPS TO
PRIORITIZE HEAT SAFETY. ALSO, REMEMBER THAT RIVERS AND LAKES
REMAIN COLD DESPITE THE WARM WEATHER, INCREASING THE RISK OF
COLD-WATER SHOCK FOR ANYONE SEEKING RELIEF NEAR THE WATER. -03
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (>90% CHANCE) FOR
MARINE STRATUS PUSHING ONSHORE INTO THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KAST BY 10-12Z
TUE AND SPREADING SOUTH TO KTMK BY 14-16Z TUE. LIMITED MIXING
WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG THE NORTH OREGON
COAST WITH A 35-55% CHANCE OF MIXING INCREASING BETWEEN 21Z TUE TO
03Z WED, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT MARINE STRATUS WILL
SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST, BUT THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS AT KONP AT ANY GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 15-22Z TUE.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIXING OCCURS AT KONP AFTER 21Z TUE TO 02Z WED,
RETURNING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS INLAND AND 10-14 KTS ALONG THE COAST AFTER
15-18Z TUE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALONG
THE COAST AND UP TO 20 KT INLAND ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE AFTER 06-09Z WED.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AFTER 18Z TUE TO 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FROM 21Z TUE-06Z
WED. WINDS WEAKEN AFTER 06Z WED. -03/10
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN THE SUMMERTIME
PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEK. DIURNALLY DRIVEN NORTHERLIES ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WEAKENED LAST NIGHT WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 15 KTS ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS, WITH THIS PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. SEAS AROUND 4 TO 7 FT AT 8-10 SECONDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE NORTHERLY WIND
CHOP. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 TO 11 FT WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A FRESH NORTHWESTERLY SWELL BUILDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. /DH/03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PZZ251-252-271-272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PZZ253-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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