193
FXUS66 KPQR 161751 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1050 AM PDT TUE JUN 16 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TODAY, BRINGING SLIGHT RELIEF
FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INDICATE THAT ONSHORE FLOW
HAS RETURNED TO NW OR AND SW WA, AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MARINE STRATUS SLOWLY NEARING THE COAST DUE TO THIS. MARINE
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE NW OR AND SW WA COAST THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE A DAILY FIXTURE ALONG THE COAST
AGAIN. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING RELIEF FROM THE RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 8-20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EVEN THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS, HIGH
PRESSURE STILL REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SO TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REMAIN WARMER THAN DAILY NORMALS FOR MID JUNE (MID
60S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 70S FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS) FOR
THE INTERIOR. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO
WA TODAY AND TOMORROW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PUSHES WEST,
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND 60S ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 50S.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS SHIFTS A BIT EAST AGAIN ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS WITH A 20-45% CHANCE OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90
DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS BETWEEN CORVALLIS AND VANCOUVER. BY
FRIDAY, ENSEMBLES INDICATE BROAD YET WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE PACNW REMAINING UNDER
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE. PROBABILITIES INDICATE VERY SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO THURSDAY, THOUGH THE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS LARGER DEPENDING ON THE FINAL STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE TROUGHING. THE WEAK TROUGHING IS SLATED TO MOVE
INLAND SATURDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO LOWER AGAIN TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION SIGNAL WITH THIS
TROUGH EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. AROUND 55% OF MEMBERS SUGGEST TROUGHING WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION WITH THE OTHER 45% INDICATING THE TROUGH
BEGINS MOVING EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
BEGINNING TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE
TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS ANYWHERE FROM THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS, WITH THE NBM DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
SUGGESTING LOW TO MID 80S. ON MONDAY, 70% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE SOME LEVEL OF RIDGING OVER THE PACNW WITH 30%
SUGGESTING TROUGHING CONTINUES. THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE
TEMPERATURE SPREAD FOR MONDAY IS STILL PRETTY LARGE, BUT THE
ENTIRE DISTRIBUTION IS WARMER THAN SUNDAY: IN THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 90S FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
HIGHER NUMBER OF MEMBERS INDICATING RIDGING AND THEREFORE
WARMING, THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER, NBM DETERMINISTIC FORECAST INCREASES TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. PROBABILITIES FOR
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES INCREASE FROM 5-30% ON SUNDAY
TO 35-65% ON MONDAY, HIGHEST PROBABILITIES BETWEEN CORVALLIS AND
VANCOUVER.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS
ON THE DRY AND WARM SIDE WITH MODERATE HEATRISK FOR PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY. THOSE
SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE ACCESS
TO AIR CONDITIONING OR HYDRATION, SHOULD TAKE STEPS TO
PRIORITIZE HEAT SAFETY. ALSO, REMEMBER THAT RIVERS AND LAKES
REMAIN COLD DESPITE THE WARM WEATHER, INCREASING THE RISK OF
COLD-WATER SHOCK FOR ANYONE SEEKING RELIEF NEAR THE WATER. -03
AVIATION
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. AS OF 17Z, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE AT KAST AS MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES
TO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING. LOWER VFR STRATUS HAS ALSO PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH CIGS AROUND FL040-050, BUT EXPECT THOSE
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CIGS ALONG THE COAST LIFT TO MVFR BY 21Z WITH AROUND
A 40-50% CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH 03Z WED. OVERCAST
MARINE STRATUS WITH AT LEAST MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE NORTHERN COAST BY 05Z WED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE
MARINE STRATUS OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL PUSH INLAND NEAR
KONP TODAY, THOUGH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR IFR TO LOWER MVFR
CIGS (40-60%) REMAINS BETWEEN 18-00Z THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST AND UP
TO 20 KT INLAND.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHALLOW BROKEN STRATUS THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY 19-20Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WED. PROBS FOR MVFR CIGS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AFTER 12Z WED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS BACKBUILDING
OFF THE CASCADES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, WEAKENING AFTER 06Z
WED. /DH
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN THE SUMMERTIME
PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEK. DIURNALLY DRIVEN NORTHERLIES ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WEAKENED LAST NIGHT WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 15 KTS ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS, WITH THIS PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. SEAS AROUND 4 TO 7 FT AT 8-10 SECONDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE NORTHERLY WIND
CHOP. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 TO 11 FT WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A FRESH NORTHWESTERLY SWELL BUILDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. /DH/03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PZZ251-252-271-272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ253-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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