100
FXUS66 KPQR 162057
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
157 PM PDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER, WARM (ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY COOLER) AND DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS
WELL AS SATELLITES IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW ONSHORE FLOW
IMPACTING THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. PERSISTENT, ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING RELIEF FROM THE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST
72-96 HOURS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S INLAND,
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
THE CASCADES. WHILE ONSHORE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW. THE REASON FOR THE RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS IS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. THE REGION IS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN PROVINCES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS SET UP IS CREATING WEAK, BUT PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE PAC NW, WITHIN THE OVERALL FLOW, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE REGION SLIGHTLY
COOLER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
REGION, THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. SO,
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND 60S ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 50S. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC HIGH, RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS, UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE CASCADES. FRIDAY, IS ON TRACK TO BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS, WHILE THE COAST
AND THE CASCADES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND MID
70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE CASCADES. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION, THERE IS A 10-45% CHANCE OF REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS BETWEEN CORVALLIS, OR AND
VANCOUVER, WA. AS FOR FRIDAY, THERE IS A 20-75% CHANCE OF
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS BETWEEN EUGENE,
OR AND LONGVIEW, WA AND A 10-30% CHANCE OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
95 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS BETWEEN CANBY, OR AND KALAMA, WA.
LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THE REGION LOOKS TO
UNDERGO ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE. SPC 500 MB CLUSTERS SHOW VERY
WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING AROUND THE OR/CA BORDER (OR JUST SOUTH
OF) AND SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NOW,
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH SATURDAY BEING VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
SUNDAY BEING VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE STILL
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND AS SATURDAY
HAS A ROUGHLY 10 DEGREE SPREAD WHEN LOOKING AT THE 10TH-90TH
PERCENTILE AND AROUND A 5 DEGREE SPREAD FOR THE 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILE. AS FOR SUNDAY THE SPREAD IS A LITTLE LARGER WITH A
ROUGHLY 15 DEGREE SPREAD WHEN LOOKING AT THE 10TH-90TH
PERCENTILE AND AROUND A 10 DEGREE SPREAD FOR THE 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILE. THE CAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THE WEEKEND TROUGH. SO, WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
NBM 5.0 FORECAST.
THE START OF NEXT WEEK ALSO LOOKS TO BE RATHER UNCERTAIN. WPC
500 MB GUIDANCE SHOWS A MAJORITY OF THE CLUSTERS BRINGING SOME
TYPE OF RIDGING BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S COMING BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY FOR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON THE DRY AND WARM SIDE. MINOR
TO MODERATE HEATRISK REMAINS FOR THE INTERIOR THURSDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. HOWEVER, MONDAY AND TUESDAY THERE ARE SOME
STRONGER SIGNALS (HOT DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS)
THAT DO POINT TOWARDS MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTING THE REGION. SO,
THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT, IF YOU ARE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING OR HYDRATION. STEPS SHOULD BE TAKEN
TO PRIORITIZE HEAT SAFETY. ALSO, REMEMBER THAT RIVERS AND LAKES
REMAIN COLD DESPITE THE WARM WEATHER, INCREASING THE RISK OF
COLD-WATER SHOCK FOR ANYONE SEEKING RELIEF NEAR THE WATER. /42
AVIATION
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. AS OF 21Z, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT AN IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO LOWER MVFR CIGS AT KAST AS
MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES TO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT CIGS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT ALONG THE COAST WITH JUST
AROUND A 20-30% CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH 03Z WED.
OVERCAST MARINE STRATUS WITH AT LEAST MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN THE NORTHERN COAST AFTER 05Z WED AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD. MARINE STRATUS HAS PUSHED ONSHORE NEAR KONP
WITH LIFR CIGS. PROBABILITIES FOR IFR CIGS REMAIN ELEVATED
(40-60%) THROUGH 02Z WED. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST AND UP
TO 20 KT INLAND.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WED. PROBS FOR MVFR CIGS BEGIN TO INCREASE
AFTER 12Z WED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS BACKBUILDING OFF THE
CASCADES. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING, WEAKENING AFTER 06Z WED. /DH
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN THE SUMMERTIME
PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEK. DIURNALLY DRIVEN NORTHERLIES ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL COASTAL
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS,
AS THIS PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AROUND 4
TO 7 FT AT 8-10 SECONDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 8
TO 11 FT WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A FRESH NORTHWESTERLY SWELL
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. /DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ251-252-271-
272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ253-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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