676
FXUS66 KPQR 182052
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
152 PM PDT THU JUN 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT HOT TEMPERATURES PEAKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK, HOWEVER THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THERE HAS BEEN VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE. AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. TEMPERATURES PEAK ON FRIDAY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS AS TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A RETURN TO STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS DAYTIME HIGHS REACH TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES ON THE COAST AND 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY, THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR HEATRISK FOR MOST AREAS WITHIN
OUR CWA AND LOCALLY MODERATE HEATRISK FROM SALEM, OR NORTHWARD
TOWARDS KELSO/LONGVIEW, WA AND ACROSS THE GREATER PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO AREA. AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
YIELD COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY ALONG THE
COAST, WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO COOL INLAND
LOCATIONS DOWN, WHICH WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ON SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RENEWED RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAISING THE
CHANCES FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAYS LOOKING TO BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS REMAIN, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST, BUT GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS, THERE IS 85-95%
PROBABILITY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES F THROUGHOUT
INLAND VALLEYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE CHANCES TO EXCEED 95
DEGREES SIMILARLY PEAK AT GENERALLY AROUND 40-85% CHANCE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WHILE THE CHANCES TO REACH 100 DEGREES REACH 25-40%
ONLY FROM SALEM, OR NORTH TO VANCOUVER, WA ON MONDAY AND 20-40%
FROM CORVALLIS, OR NORTH TO KELSO/LONGVIEW, WA.
THESE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK INLAND
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH THE COVERAGE OF MAJOR HEATRISK
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE OCCURRENCE OF OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID 60S. LOOKING BEYOND, TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A COOLING TREND BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO LATER NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE'S
STILL A 30-50% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90 DEGREES TO
PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THERE ARE NO
STRONG SIGNALS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST. /42-03
AVIATION
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AIRSPACE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE INLAND TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, COASTAL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY
SEE A MIX MVFR/IFR/LIFR MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST
BEGINNING AROUND 10-12Z FRI. FROM 10Z ONWARD TO AT LEAST 18Z FRI,
THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF MVFR, 30-40% CHANCE OF IFR, AND A
10-20% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST UNTIL 04Z FRI. WIND
THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY (THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR MOST TERMINALS), HOWEVER
INFREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20Z THU AND 02Z
FRI.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-20 KT
EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z THU AND 02Z FRI. ~12
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEK. DIURNALLY DRIVEN NORTHERLIES ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS, DECREASING A BIT IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT
TO MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL LIKELY EASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WA,
TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY. SEAS AROUND 7 TO 9
FT AT 8-9 SECONDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9 TO 11 FT AT 9-10
SECONDS LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A FRESH
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL PERSISTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. /DH/03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ251>253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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