190
FXUS66 KPQR 191751 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1051 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW COOLING TEMPERATURES DOWN ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS,
WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS BEING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WITH LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE
PORTLAND-VANCVOUER METRO AREA DUE TO WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AND
EXACTLY HOW MUCH WE WILL COOL DOWN FOLLOWING THIS HEAT.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DEPICTS SOME
MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST WHILE
THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM TODAY AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES F WILL RESULT IN
MINOR HEATRISK FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR MODERATE HEATRISK ALONG
THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM SALEM, OR TO KELSO/LONGVIEW, WA. THIS
LEVEL OF HEAT WILL AFFECT THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY
THOSE WITHOUT COOLING AND HYDRATION.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SWING DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW WILL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH OF OUR AREA,
HOWEVER, WE WILL STILL SEE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM. AS A RESULT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW, OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM THE
DAYTIME HEAT. LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING, ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PEAK AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN DUE TO LOWER
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY, WHERE WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30-40 MPH WITH A
20-30% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL COOL DOWN FURTHER DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW WITH MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH A 40-55% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES
ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR (HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE PORTLAND-
VANCOUVER METRO AREA).
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDING OFFSHORE
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (>90% CHANCE) FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES F ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LOWLANDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS
EVEN A 20-30% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES F
FROM SALEM TO PORTLAND-VANCOUVER ON MONDAY, WITH CHANCES
INCREASING TO 40-50% ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
WARM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
PORTLAND-VANCOUVER METRO AREA WHERE THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR
TUESDAY MORNING LOWS REMAINING ABOVE 65 DEGREES (HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS PORTLAND-VANCOUVER METRO DUE TO URBAN HEAT ISLANDS
EFFECTS). OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR ABOVE 65 DEGREES WOULD PROVIDE
LIMITED OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON, WITH LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS
THE PORTLAND-VANCVOUER METRO AREA FROM THE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS.
MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY, INCLUDING STAYING HYDRATED,
WEARING LIGHT-COLORED AND LOOSE-FITTED CLOTHING, WEARING SUN
PROTECTION, AND TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT. IF
POSSIBLE, SCHEDULE OUTDOOR PLANS DURING THE EARLY MORNING OR
LATE EVENING WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS INTENSE.
GREATER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AS 55% OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD
AND COOLING TEMPERATURES DOWN DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.
HOWEVER, THE REMAINING 45% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINTAIN THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND CONTINUING HOT TEMPERATURES. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A 20 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE NBM 10TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, WITH THE
COOLEST SCENARIO BEING IN THE LOW 80S WHILE THE WARMEST SCENARIO
IS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES F. IN ADDITION, THERE
REMAINS NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. -10
AVIATION
AS OF 18Z FRI, SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MARINE
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF KAST, MAINTAINING IFR CIGS AT
KTMK AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT KONP. WHILE MOST OF THE STRATUS
IS SOUTH OF KAST, SOME THINNING STRATUS REMAINS AT KAST, WHICH
COULD REMAIN AND KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINAL UNTIL 20Z
FRI.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MARINE STRATUS TO PERSIST AT KONP
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SAT, WITH A 60-80% CHANCE OF MVFR, 30-50%
CHANCE OF IFR, AND 10-30% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS. AS FOR KAST,
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z FRI AND THEN
DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR CIGS WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
BY 03-06Z SAT. FROM NOW UNTIL 03Z SAT, THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY
FOR KAST WILL BE VIS, WHERE SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR VIS
BETWEEN THIS TIME RANGE. INLAND TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AROUND 12Z SAT, THE A MARINE
STRATUS PUSH WILL BRING A 30-40% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS TO ALL
INLAND TERMINALS. EXPECT MOSTLY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
5-10 KT, STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME TERMINALS SHIFTING
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 06-12Z SAT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD, THEN A 20-30% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 12Z SAT. WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER 12Z SAT. ~12
MARINE
A SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAINTAINING NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS (BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE)
THROUGH 5 PM SATURDAY, WHILE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
INNER WATERS (FROM THE COAST TO 10 NM OFFSHORE) CONTINUES THROUGH
5 AM FRIDAY. EXPECT BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS EASE,
HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY AROUND 8-12 FT AT 9-10
SECONDS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR
THOSE TRAVELING ACROSS THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR, STRONG EBB CURRENTS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND 0835 FRIDAY. -10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ271>273.
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