167
FXUS66 KPQR 192129
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
229 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES EMBARK ON A BIT OF A "ROLLER-COASTER"
RIDE OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS HIGHLIGHTED BY SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON, WITH
LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE PORTLAND-VANCVOUER METRO
AREA THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LATTER TWO LOCATIONS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY COME WEDNESDAY
AS TO JUST HOW QUICKLY THE HEAT DIMINISHES BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY
THIS AFTERNOON THE AXIS OF
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT FURTHER TO OUR
EAST BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS
CENTERED ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AT LEAST IF YOU THINK MID TO UPPER 80S ARE TOO WARM FOR YOUR
LIKING SOME RELIEF IS SLATED FOR TOMORROW (SATURDAY). SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS MARINE STRATUS ENTRENCHED ALONG A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE OREGON COAST SPURRED ON BY THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE CORE OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH LIKELY SWINGS DOWN INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE WILL NOTICEABLY INCREASE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
REGIONALLY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERLY FLOW IN ADDITION
TO SOME MORNING CLOUD COVER FILTERING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GENERALLY RISE MID TO UPPER 70S -
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAY PRIOR (TODAY).
IT'S WORTH NOTING THE PASSING TROUGH TIGHTENS THE WEST TO EAST
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CASCADES ON SATURDAY
LEADING TO LOCALLY BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE COLUMBIA GORGE. THE STRONGEST WEST WINDS ARE LOCALLY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY, WHERE WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30-40 MPH
WITH A 20-30% CHANCE FOR INFREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 45 MPH.
THESE WINDS NOTICEABLE DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER-TROUGH QUICKLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDING OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THE HOTTEST DAYS OVER THE NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY DURING WHICH THE VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
THE RIDGE SLIDING RIGHT OVER-TOP THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (>95% CHANCE) FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES F ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LOWLANDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
20-40% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES F FROM
SALEM TO PORTLAND-VANCOUVER ON MONDAY, INCREASING TO 40-60% ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE WARM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY, COLUMBIA GORGE, AND PORTLAND-
VANCOUVER METRO AREA WHERE THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS TO REMAIN ABOVE 65 DEGREES (HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS PORTLAND-VANCOUVER METRO DUE TO URBAN HEAT
ISLANDS EFFECTS). OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR ABOVE 65 DEGREES WOULD
PROVIDE LIMITED OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AS A RESULT,
THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON DURING THIS PERIOD,
WITH LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE PORTLAND-VANCVOUER
METRO AREA THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE FROM THE WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF AN EXTREME HEAT
WATCH FOR THESE TWO AREAS STARTING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY,
INCLUDING STAYING HYDRATED, WEARING LIGHT-COLORED AND LOOSE-
FITTED CLOTHING, WEARING SUN PROTECTION, AND TAKING FREQUENT
BREAKS FROM THE HEAT. IF POSSIBLE, SCHEDULE OUTDOOR PLANS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING OR LATE EVENING WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LESS INTENSE.
ELEVATED FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ON THE WHOLE (AI AND NUMERICAL) HAS SLOWLY
BEEN TRENDING WARMER RUN TO RUN. AS OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS TODAY,
AROUND ~65% OF THE NUMERICAL ENSEMBLE SPACE KEEP UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR ONE MORE DAY THUS MAINTAIN HOT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S, WHILE THE OTHER ~35% OF
ENSEMBLES SHIFT THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST USHERING IN
THE RETURN OF WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND "COOLER" TEMPERATURES (80S
TO NEAR 90). STILL, WITHIN THE LATEST NBM THERE IS CURRENTLY A
17-20 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE NBM 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES ON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO, WITH
THE COOLEST SCENARIO BEING IN THE MID 80S WHILE THE WARMEST
SCENARIO PUSHES HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES F. SHOULD THE WARMING
TREND ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUE, HEAT RELATED IMPACTS MAY EXTEND
YET ANOTHER DAY. AT LEAST THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO NUDGE EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE FURTHER, ALBEIT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR JUNE. -99
AVIATION
AS OF 21Z FRI, MVFR STRATUS LINGERS ALONG THE COAST
SOUTH OF KAST, WHILE INLAND TERMINALS REMAIN VFR. CONDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AS RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WHILE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED MVFR AND IFR
CONDS EARLIER THIS MORNING. FROM NOW UNTIL AROUND 02-03Z SAT,
EXPECT CONDS TO GENERALLY IMPROVE AT COASTAL TERMINALS, WITH VFR
CONDS AT KAST AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KONP. AFTER 02-03Z SAT,
MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE COAST AND BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO KAST (WITH A 10-30% CHANCE OF IFR CONDS) AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS TO KONP (WITH A 10-30% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDS).
INLAND TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SAT. FROM 12Z
TO 18Z SAT, A MARINE STRATUS PUSH WILL BRING A 20-30% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS TO ALL INLAND TERMINALS. EXPECT MOSTLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KT, STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON. BY 06-12Z
SAT, MOST TERMINALS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. NEAR
18-20Z SAT, WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO WESTERLY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SAT,
THEN A 20-30% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z SAT. WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
12Z SAT AND THEN BACK TOWARD WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY 18-20Z
SAT.~12
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS (BEYOND 10 NM
OFFSHORE) THROUGH 11 PM SATURDAY. TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT, THEN WINDS WEAKEN INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES. STEEP AND CHOPPY
SEAS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY, AROUND 8 TO 11 FT AT 9 TO
10 SECONDS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 7 FT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SEAS
REMAIN AROUND 6 TO 8 FT OR LESS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.~12
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ109-111-112-120-122.
WA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WAZ206-207-209-210.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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