563
FXUS66 KPQR 281014
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
313 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY,
MAINTAINING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW/MID 70S EACH DAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY,
HOWEVER MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WEST OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
TRENDING MAINLY DRY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TO 15-35% ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER MEASURABLE RAIN IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE LATEST SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST COOL AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PREDOMINATELY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S TO LOW/MID 70S EACH DAY, COOLEST AT THE COAST AND IN THE
CASCADES AND WARMEST IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY, WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE AROUND 77-79 DEGREES FOR INLAND VALLEYS AND MID 60S AT THE COAST.
AVERAGE HIGHS FOR INLAND VALLEYS INCREASE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY THE
FOURTH OF JULY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER
SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. IN FACT, MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION, EXCEPT IN THE CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS WHERE SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE FREQUENT DUE TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL
TREND MAINLY DRY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASIDE FROM ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES FROM TIME TO TIME. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-35% ON THURSDAY PER THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE,
HIGHEST IN THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, QPF AMOUNTS FROM MODEL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ARE VERY LOW ON THURSDAY. EVEN THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
24-HR QPF FROM 5AM THURSDAY THROUGH 5AM FRIDAY IS NEAR ZERO, EXCEPT
0.05-0.25 INCHES SOUTHWEST WA, THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES, AND ALONG
THE NORTH OREGON COAST. THIS SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
ISOLATED ON THURSDAY IF THEY DO OCCUR WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING
DRY.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WARM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HOWEVER, IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL GET AND WHETHER THE WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON FRIDAY OR ON THE 4TH OF JULY. MODEL SPREAD FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS LARGE ON BOTH FRIDAY AND THE 4TH OF JULY, RANGING
FROM AROUND 65-80 DEGREES ON FRIDAY FOR INLAND VALLEYS AND FROM 70-87
DEGREES ON THE 4TH OF JULY PER THE NBM 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE. THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON FRIDAY, WARMING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE 4TH OF JULY. MEANWHILE, THE COAST IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. -23
AVIATION
RADAR AND SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM 10Z SUNDAY
DEPICTED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA WITH A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER, MVFR CEILINGS ARE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREDOMINANT THAN VFR
CEILINGS BOTH INLAND AND AT THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS TREND TOWARDS VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE THERE IS A 60-90% CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE DAY. KONP HAS A RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCE FOR VFR CEILINGS
COMPARED TO KAST. RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND ISOLATED WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FT
SUNDAY MORNING, TRENDING TOWARDS VFR BY 20Z SUNDAY. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 KT WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 00Z
MONDAY AND INCREASE CLOSE TO 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KT. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18-21Z
SUNDAY WHEN PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE TO 40-45%. -23
MARINE
BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOWED
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KT WITH STEEP SEAS NEAR
8 TO 9 FT AT 9 SECONDS DRIVEN MAINLY BY A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO HOLD STEADY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY,
HOWEVER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THE ONGOING NORTHWEST
SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 8 TO 11 FT. SEAS
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK OVER 11 FT BEYOND 30-40 NM
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY, MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF CAPE FALCON. NORTHWEST
WINDS AND A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL THEN CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, MAINTAINING STEEP SEAS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
GIVEN STEEP SEAS AND WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, EXCEPT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS WHERE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE RELATIVELY LOWER. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ251-271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ252-253.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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