508
FXUS66 KPQR 282158
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
258 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COOL MARINE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
AND SKIES GENERALLY CLOUDIER THAN WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR LATE JUNE.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY OVER
THE CASCADES AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS, WHILE MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS
TREND DRIER. SHOWER CHANCES STAY LIMITED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN INCREASE A BIT ON THURSDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND DEVELOPS HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK THIS LATE AFTERNOON, WITH ONSHORE FLOW STILL
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A COOL MARINE AIR MASS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA,
AND THAT GENERAL SETUP IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK, HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW OR MID 70S (COOLEST AT THE COAST AND MILDEST
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO).
CLOUD COVER HAS BEHAVED MUCH AS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO AT LEAST
PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS. THIS PATTERN OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON BREAKS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED COMPARED
TO SATURDAY, AND MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR TODAY.
THE MAIN EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE THE CASCADES AND CASCADE
FOOTHILLS, WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE
BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING.
AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT, AND NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FAVOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS, WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE
CASCADES. THURSDAY BRINGS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER CHANCES, NOW
ONLY FOCUSED AROUND THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST
AND COAST RANGE, WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING AS THE WEAK SIGNAL FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL MEANS FORECASTED AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
RAINFALL CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. CURRENT GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS
ONLY LOW-END PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION. EVEN AT THESE
LOCATIONS, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT.
BY FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN
TO RECOVER AS THE BROADER TROUGHING INFLUENCE WEAKENS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER IN A WARMING TREND THAN IN THE EXACT
MAGNITUDE OF THAT WARMING. AT THIS POINT, THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR INLAND HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FRIDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY, JULY 4, WHILE
THE COAST LIKELY REMAINS IN THE 60S. DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED
DURING THAT PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TEMPERATURES IS
STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN THE REMAINING MODEL SPREAD (72 TO
83 DEGREES ON FRIDAY, 75 TO 88 DEGREES ON SATURDAY).
~12
AVIATION
CURRENTLY VFR INLAND AND A MIX OF MVFR/VFR ALONG THE
COAST. DESPITE SOME COASTAL TERMINALS SEEING VFR CONDITIONS,
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD (30-70% CHANCE OF MVFR, HIGHEST AT KAST), WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 00-03Z MON. AS FOR INLAND TERMINALS,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST UNTIL 09Z MON, THEN A 30-50%
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 09-20Z MON. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT INLAND AND 7-12 KT AT
THE COAST, STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE AT A FEW TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BY 06-12Z MON, THEN SHIFT BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY NEAR 18-20Z MON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z MON.
THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 09-20Z MON.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KT WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 11-12 MON, THEN SHIFT BACK
TO NORTHWESTERLY BY 18-20Z MON.
~12
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KT WITH STEEP SEAS
NEAR 7 TO 9 FT AT 9 SECONDS DRIVEN MAINLY BY A FRESH NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY, HOWEVER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THE ONGOING NORTHWEST SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 FT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK OVER 11 FT BEYOND 30 NM OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY, MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF CAPE FALCON. NORTHWEST WINDS AND
A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL THEN CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, MAINTAINING STEEP SEAS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN STEEP SEAS AND WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, EXCEPT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS WHERE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE RELATIVELY LOWER. ~12/23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ251-271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ252-253.
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