364
FXUS66 KPQR 021011
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
310 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. NEAR ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS EACH DAY. MOST INLAND VALLEYS WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY, EXCEPT 70S TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE
COAST COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE HAS BEEN MINIMAL
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS MORNING'S UPDATE. MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT JULY 2-8, RESULTING IN A HIGH
CONFIDENCE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM FORECAST. CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR
500 MB HEIGHTS AND ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHTS THIS WELL, WITH ALL CLUSTERS
SUGGESTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE TRENDING NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A WARMING TREND, WITH INLAND VALLEYS WARMING
INTO THE 70S TODAY AND LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EACH DAY DUE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY, RESULTING IN ONLY A MINOR HEATRISK. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
HIGHS OF 90 DEGREES OR WARMER ARE VERY LOW EACH DAY AND RANGE BETWEEN
0-10%, EXCEPT ON MONDAY WHEN PROBABILITIES BRIEFLY INCREASE TO AROUND
5-15%. GIVEN THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE, CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR
OUTDOOR RECREATION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT
TO REMEMBER THAT WHILE THINGS WILL BE WARMING UP, MANY OF OUR LAKES
AND RIVERS REMAIN COLD. PLEASE PRACTICE WATER SAFETY AND NOTE THAT
RIVERS MAY HAVE SWIFT CURRENTS IN SOME AREAS, WHICH CAN QUICKLY SWEEP
YOU AWAY. WEAR LIFE JACKETS, AND VISIT WITH A BUDDY. IT IS ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER, IN THE GORGE, AND DOWNWIND OF THE COAST RANGE GAPS
EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 15-20 MPH IN THESE AREAS, EXCEPT UP TO 25 MPH IN THE
GORGE. -23/27
AVIATION
AT 10Z THURSDAY, MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING ALONG
THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
PORTLAND METRO. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH OREGON
CASCADES WAS BEGINNING TO BACKBUILD WESTWARD TOWARDS KTTD AND
KUAO. THESE CLOUDS MAY BACKBUILD FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD TO REACH
SEVERAL INLAND TERMINALS BY 12-14Z THURSDAY, HOWEVER CEILINGS
WITH THIS INLAND CLOUD DECK ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LOW-END VFR
AT AROUND 3500-4000 FEET. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 20-35% CHANCE
CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY LOWER TO 2500-3000 FEET AT ANY HOUR THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ALL INLAND TAF SITES, EXCEPT A 10-20% CHANCE AT KEUG.
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH-END MVFR CEILINGS MATERIALIZING IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME,
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10 KFT,
EXCEPT AT KAST WHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...PREDOMINATELY LOW-END VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 12-18Z THURSDAY WITH A 25-35% CHANCE FOR HIGH-END
MVFR CEILINGS AT ANY GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 12-18Z. EXPECT SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 10 KFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT IN THE
MORNING WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 8-10 KT AROUND 01-02Z FRIDAY WITH
AN INCOMING SEA BREEZE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 01-06Z FRIDAY. -23
MARINE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE EASED AS EXPECTED, WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS HOVERING BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT ALONG WITH
WEAK WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KT, STRONGEST TO
THE SOUTH OF CAPE FOULWEATHER WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE SEAS BY A FOOT
OR TWO, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE
SOUTH OREGON COAST OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A MORE NOTABLE
UPTICK IN NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE DURING THIS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN, WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH, THE INCREASING WINDS WILL
RESULT IN CHOPPIER SEAS. NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY EASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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