149
FXUS66 KPQR 021750 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1050 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. NEAR ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS EACH DAY. MOST INLAND VALLEYS WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY, EXCEPT 70S TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE
COAST COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE HAS BEEN MINIMAL
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS MORNING'S UPDATE. MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT JULY 2-8, RESULTING IN A HIGH
CONFIDENCE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM FORECAST. CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR
500 MB HEIGHTS AND ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHTS THIS WELL, WITH ALL CLUSTERS
SUGGESTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE TRENDING NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A WARMING TREND, WITH INLAND VALLEYS WARMING
INTO THE 70S TODAY AND LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EACH DAY DUE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY, RESULTING IN ONLY A MINOR HEATRISK. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
HIGHS OF 90 DEGREES OR WARMER ARE VERY LOW EACH DAY AND RANGE BETWEEN
0-10%, EXCEPT ON MONDAY WHEN PROBABILITIES BRIEFLY INCREASE TO AROUND
5-15%. GIVEN THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE, CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR
OUTDOOR RECREATION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT
TO REMEMBER THAT WHILE THINGS WILL BE WARMING UP, MANY OF OUR LAKES
AND RIVERS REMAIN COLD. PLEASE PRACTICE WATER SAFETY AND NOTE THAT
RIVERS MAY HAVE SWIFT CURRENTS IN SOME AREAS, WHICH CAN QUICKLY SWEEP
YOU AWAY. WEAR LIFE JACKETS, AND VISIT WITH A BUDDY. IT IS ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER, IN THE GORGE, AND DOWNWIND OF THE COAST RANGE GAPS
EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 15-20 MPH IN THESE AREAS, EXCEPT UP TO 25 MPH IN THE
GORGE. -23/27
AVIATION
AS OF 18Z THU, MORNING STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR
INLAND AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN. EXPECT ANY REMAINING MVFR CIGS
INLAND TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 19Z THU AT THE LATEST. INLAND TERMINALS
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN A 30-
40% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BEGINNING AROUND 14-15Z FRI. COASTAL
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER MVFR/VFR CIGS THROUGH 03Z FRI (60-80%
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 19-23Z THU), THEN DETERIORATE TO AT
LEAST IFR CIGS THROUGH 16Z FRI. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 20-40%
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06-14Z FRI.
EXPECT GENERALLY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT
THROUGHOUT THE AIRSPACE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT KAST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CURRENT MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 19Z
THU AT THE LATEST. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ABOVE 15 KFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS BEGINNING AROUND 14Z FRI. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS UNDER 8 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ~12
MARINE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE EASED AS EXPECTED, WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS HOVERING BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT ALONG WITH WEAK
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KT, STRONGEST TO THE SOUTH
OF CAPE FOULWEATHER WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE SEAS BY A FOOT OR TWO, BUT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE SOUTH
OREGON COAST OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A MORE NOTABLE UPTICK IN
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE DURING THIS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN, WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO INCREASE MUCH, THE INCREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHOPPIER SEAS.
NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY EASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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