667
FXUS66 KPQR 032027
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
127 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT A WARM AND DRY 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND ACROSS
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES WARM UP
SLIGHTLY ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS, LEADING TO LOCALIZED MODERATE HEATRISK. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY WILL COOL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON
COAST. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY. ONSHORE
FLOW MAINTAINS MILD CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. MAKE SURE TO
PRACTICE WATER SAFETY WHEN SWIMMING IN LOCAL RIVERS.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DEPICTS
LINGERING STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LOWLANDS. AS DAYTIME
HEATING PROGRESSES, MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES. THERE HAS BEEN MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. WE'RE STILL MAINTAINING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
SWINGS THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS TO
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY
AND INTO THE 4TH OF JULY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S
ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS AND 60S ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, RESULTING
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES ALONG THE I-5
CORRIDOR FROM SALEM TO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA,
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOCALIZED MODERATE HEATRISK ON MONDAY, MEANING THIS
LEVEL OF HEAT WILL AFFECT THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT OVERNIGHT
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVING
DOWN INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF
THIS TROUGH, MOST PLACES ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
AN EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON
COAST WHERE THIS SYSTEM FAVORS A 15-30% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION, ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES COOLING A FEW DEGREES. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, WILL SEE LOCALLY BREEZIER ALONG THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY, WHERE THERE IS A
30-40% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
THE TROUGH WEAKENING AND ZONAL FLOW RETURNING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, MANY LOCAL
LAKES AND RIVERS REMAIN VERY COLD AND CAN CAUSE COLD WATER
SHOCK. ALSO, RIVERS MAY STILL HAVE SWIFT CURRENTS IN SOME AREAS,
WHICH CAN QUICKLY SWEEP YOU AWAY. PLEASE PRACTICE WATER SAFETY
BY WEARING LIFE JACKETS, VISITING WITH A BUDDY, AND ALWAYS BEING
AWARE OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS. -10
AVIATION
MARINE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM EAST TO WEST. THE COAST REMAINS UNDER A DENSE MVFR CLOUD
DECK, BUT MOST SITES INLAND ARE SCATTERED OUT AS OF 20Z FRI. WILL
SEE THIS TREND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOWING THE COASTAL DENSE CLOUD COVER FILLING BACK IN
OVERNIGHT. TRENDING TOWARDS LOW-END MVFR CIGS, EXCEPT AROUND KONP
WHERE THERE IS A 70% CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE THESE
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS SLIGHTLY LESS
AROUND A 40-50% CHANCE. CLOUDS, SIMILAR TO TODAY, WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 19Z SAT, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN EARLIER DUE TO INCREASED
DAYTIME HEATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT
THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FROM 10-17Z SAT. WINDS
REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY THEN VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. -27
MARINE
OVERALL FAIRLY SETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY BUT WILL
SEE WINDS RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 10 KT UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.
THIS COMMON SUMMER PATTERN WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE
WE COULD SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 4-6 FT AT 8 SECONDS BEFORE BUILDING ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO 7-9 FT AT 10 SECONDS DUE TO AN INCREASED NORTHERLY
WIND WAVE THAT COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
BUT COULD EASILY SEE IT EXTEND INTO MONDAY. BOTH SEAS AND WINDS
EASE ON TUESDAY BUT COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS UP TO
15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. -27
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ251-271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ252-272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ253-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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