189
FXUS66 KPQR 040532
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1032 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT A WARM AND DRY 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND ACROSS
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES WARM UP
SLIGHTLY ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS, LEADING TO LOCALIZED MODERATE HEATRISK. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY WILL COOL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON
COAST. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY. ONSHORE
FLOW MAINTAINS MILD CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. MAKE SURE TO
PRACTICE WATER SAFETY WHEN SWIMMING IN LOCAL RIVERS.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DEPICTS
LINGERING STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LOWLANDS. AS DAYTIME
HEATING PROGRESSES, MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES. THERE HAS BEEN MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. WE'RE STILL MAINTAINING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
SWINGS THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS TO
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY
AND INTO THE 4TH OF JULY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S
ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS AND 60S ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, RESULTING
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES ALONG THE I-5
CORRIDOR FROM SALEM TO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA,
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOCALIZED MODERATE HEATRISK ON MONDAY, MEANING THIS
LEVEL OF HEAT WILL AFFECT THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT OVERNIGHT
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVING
DOWN INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF
THIS TROUGH, MOST PLACES ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
AN EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON
COAST WHERE THIS SYSTEM FAVORS A 15-30% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION, ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES COOLING A FEW DEGREES. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, WILL SEE LOCALLY BREEZIER ALONG THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY, WHERE THERE IS A
30-40% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
THE TROUGH WEAKENING AND ZONAL FLOW RETURNING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, MANY LOCAL
LAKES AND RIVERS REMAIN VERY COLD AND CAN CAUSE COLD WATER
SHOCK. ALSO, RIVERS MAY STILL HAVE SWIFT CURRENTS IN SOME AREAS,
WHICH CAN QUICKLY SWEEP YOU AWAY. PLEASE PRACTICE WATER SAFETY
BY WEARING LIFE JACKETS, VISITING WITH A BUDDY, AND ALWAYS BEING
AWARE OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS. -10
AVIATION
LARGELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE, ASIDE FROM DEVELOPING MARINE STRATUS OVERNIGHT.
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL MOST LIKELY (70-90% CHANCE) FALL TO MVFR
CIGS BY 09Z OR EARLIER SAT, WITH MODEST (30-50%) CHANCES OF IFR
CIGS FROM 09-12Z SAT, WITH HIGHER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
CENTRAL OR COAST. VIS RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR ARE ALSO FAVORED,
WITH A 25% OR LOWER CHANCE OF IFR VIS OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL TEND
TO CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, YIELDING
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS
INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD, AFTER 03Z SUN. DIURNAL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE BUILDING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
20-25 KT BY 18-21Z SAT. INLAND, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, HOWEVER INCREASED LOW CLOUD COVER AT 4-6
KFT OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH 15-35% CHANCES CLOUD BASES FALL
BELOW MVFR LEVELS, MOST LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY
(KSLE, KUAO). SKIES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY CLEAR FROM 15-18Z SAT.
DIURNAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KT TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT SATURDAY MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MARINE STRATUS MAY DEVELOP BY 09-12Z SAT,
BUT CHANCES FOR CLOUD BASES BELOW 3 KFT ARE ONLY 20-25%. LOW
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 15-17Z SAT, WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. DIURNAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE
BELOW 5 KT TONIGHT, THEN RISE TO 5-10 KT SATURDAY MORNING. -36
MARINE
OVERALL FAIRLY SETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY BUT
WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 10 KT
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WATERS. THIS COMMON SUMMER PATTERN WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
WATERS WHERE WE COULD SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4-6 FT AT 8 SECONDS BEFORE
BUILDING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 7-9 FT AT 10 SECONDS DUE TO AN
INCREASED NORTHERLY WIND WAVE THAT COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT COULD EASILY SEE IT EXTEND INTO MONDAY. BOTH
SEAS AND WINDS EASE ON TUESDAY BUT COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS. -27
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ251-271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ252-272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ253-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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