245
FXUS66 KPQR 041002
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT A WARM AND DRY 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND ACROSS
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES WARM UP
SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, LEADING TO
LOCALIZED MODERATE HEATRISK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL COOL TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES AND BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURN ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP
TO MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE WATER SAFETY
WHEN SWIMMING IN LOCAL RIVERS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SET UP WILL HELP
MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS AND LOW TO UPPER
60S ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE GREAT
BASIN HIGH PRESSURE, BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN
FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND INTO THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THAT MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY. THE
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE HAS A 10-35% CHANCE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM EUGENE,
OR TO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE,
AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MODERATE HEATRISK ON MONDAY, MEANING THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL
AFFECT THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT OVERNIGHT RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, MANY LOCAL
LAKES AND RIVERS REMAIN VERY COLD AND CAN CAUSE COLD WATER
SHOCK. ALSO, RIVERS MAY STILL HAVE SWIFT CURRENTS IN SOME AREAS,
WHICH CAN QUICKLY SWEEP YOU AWAY. PLEASE PRACTICE WATER SAFETY
BY WEARING LIFE JACKETS, VISITING WITH A BUDDY, AND ALWAYS BEING
AWARE OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS. /42-10
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA MOVING DOWN INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THUS COMPRESSING THE
GREAT BASIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF
THIS TROUGH, MOST PLACES ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
AN EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON
COAST WHERE THIS SYSTEM FAVORS A 15-30% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY, BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
CURRENT QPF TOTALS ARE MINIMAL AT BEST. DESPITE THE LACK OF
WIDESPREAD, IF ANY PRECIPITATION, ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
AND SUPPORT TEMPERATURES COOLING A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY JULY. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, WILL SEE LOCALLY BREEZIER ALONG THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY, WHERE THERE IS A 25-40%
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MOST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE BRITISH COLUMBIA TROUGH WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME, THE GREAT BASIN HIGH LOOKS
TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE PAC NW WHICH WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
BACK INTO THE FORECAST. /42-10
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION, RESULTING IN PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z-19Z SATURDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS
VFR EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN MIXING OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. STARTING AROUND 06Z-09Z SUNDAY, MARINE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST BRINGING MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK INTO THE FORECAST. NORTHERLY WIND LESS THAN 10 KT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KT FOR
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY (KPDX,
KVUO AND KUAO) FROM AROUND 00Z-06Z SUNDAY AS WELL AS GUSTS UP TO
25 KT ALONG THE COAST FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WIND LESS THAN 10 KT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KT STARTING
AROUND 00Z-05Z SUNDAY. /42
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL RESULT IN GUSTS UP TO 20
KT BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KT BY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD FROM 4 TO 6 FT TOWARDS 6 TO
8 FT BY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENT SUITE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BECOME DISPLACED TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THUS
EASING OVERALL CONDITIONS BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. /42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ251-271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ252-272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
SUNDAY FOR PZZ253-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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