640
FXUS66 KPQR 050950
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
250 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOCALIZED MODERATE HEATRISK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL COOL TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE
WATER SAFETY WHEN SWIMMING IN LOCAL RIVERS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
TODAY INTO MONDAY,
THERE REMAINS LITTLE CHANCE IN OVERALL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHEN
COMPARED TO 24-36 HOURS. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE, ORIGINATING FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, FOR THE COAST EXPECTED UPPER 60S TO MID
70S AND FOR THE CASCADES UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. MONDAY IS STILL
ON TRACK TO BE THE WARMEST THIS WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS
THE CWA 3-5 DEGREES F WARMER THAN TODAY. CHANCES FOR EXCEEDING
90 DEGREES REMAIN AROUND 15-40% CHANCE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, WE'LL STILL
HAVE SOME LOCALIZED MODERATE HEATRISK ON MONDAY WITHIN THE INNER
PORTLAND METRO AND PARTS OF THE GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MEANS THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL AFFECT THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR
HYDRATION. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM, MANY LOCAL LAKES AND RIVERS REMAIN VERY COLD AND CAN
CAUSE COLD WATER SHOCK. ALSO, RIVERS MAY STILL HAVE SWIFT
CURRENTS IN SOME AREAS, WHICH CAN QUICKLY SWEEP YOU AWAY. PLEASE
PRACTICE WATER SAFETY BY WEARING LIFE JACKETS, VISITING WITH A
BUDDY, AND ALWAYS BEING AWARE OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS. /42
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ENSEMBLE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. SAID
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA MOVING EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND DE-
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ALASKAN SYSTEM NORTH OF THE
REGION, WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY, BUT WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY COOLER ONSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO
INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND WILL HELP TO KEEP THE CWA
A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY JULY. WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, WILL SEE LOCALLY
BREEZIER WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND UPPER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY, WHERE THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT THE SAME TIME, ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL TROUGHING MOVING DOWN FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS ADDITIONAL TROUGHING, THUS UNCERTAINTY WITH
ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. IF THIS PATTERN DOES PAN
OUT, THIS WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. /42-10
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFFSHORE, BUT
CHANCES INCREASE FOR MVFR CIGS WITHIN MARINE STRATUS OVERNIGHT.
ALONG THE COAST, CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER (60-80% CHANCE) IN BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 1.5-2.5 KFT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE 25-35% CHANCES CIGS
FALL TO IFR, HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE NORTH OR AND SOUTH WA
COAST NEAR KAST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
RESTRENGTHENING SUNDAY MORNING TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INLAND, CONFIDENCE IN LOWER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS WITH
35-55% CHANCES, GENERALLY INCREASING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TO THE EAST NEAR THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN THE PORTLAND AREA INCLUDING KPDX AND
KTTD, WITH CIGS AT 2-3 KFT MOST LIKELY FROM 12-16Z SUN. LOW
CLOUD COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO PEAK AT THE SAME TIME AT OTHER
TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT MVFR
CIGS AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL TEND TO MIX OUT BY 17-19Z
SUN, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS ALONG THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE PORTLAND AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
EASING TO AROUND 5 KT TONIGHT BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO 8-12 KT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS WITHIN LOW STRATUS INCREASE
TO 50-55% AFTER 10-12Z SUN. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINALLY HIGHER AT
KTTD, BUT HAVE INCLUDED EXPLICIT MVFR CIGS AT KPDX OVERNIGHT AS
WELL. LOW CLOUD COVERAGE WILL PEAK FROM 12-16Z SUN BEFORE MIXING
OUT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH A RETURN TO LARGELY CLEAR
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS BY 18-19Z SUN. NORTHWEST WINDS EASE TO
5 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. -36
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS RESULTING IN INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 4 TO 6 FT TOWARDS 6 TO 8 FT THROUGH
TODAY AS WELL. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED IN ZONES PZZ252, PZZ253,
PZZ272 AND PZZ273. THEREFORE, WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SUITE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS EASE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHICH
WILL BRING ABOUT RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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