249
FXUS66 KPQR 060530
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1030 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOCALIZED MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE INNER PORTLAND METRO,
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND A 15-20% CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST.
LATE IN THE WEEK, PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE WATER SAFETY WHEN
SWIMMING IN AREA RIVERS.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPICTS SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT MUCH SOONER
TODAY, SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS AND 60S ALONG THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL, SO GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RETURN OF
MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS
WHILE THE COAST REMAINS IN THE 60S. CHANCES FOR EXCEEDING 90
DEGREES REMAIN AROUND 10-35% CHANCE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY, 50-75% CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY, AND LESS THAN 10% FOR THE REST OF THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. FOR THESE LOCATIONS, THERE WILL BE SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE HEATRISK, MEANING THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL
AFFECT THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT OVERNIGHT RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT. EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL REMAIN IN MINOR HEATRISK.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, MANY LOCAL
LAKES AND RIVERS REMAIN VERY COLD AND CAN CAUSE COLD WATER
SHOCK. ALSO, RIVERS MAY STILL HAVE SWIFT CURRENTS IN SOME AREAS,
WHICH CAN QUICKLY SWEEP YOU AWAY. PLEASE PRACTICE WATER SAFETY
BY WEARING PERSONAL FLOATATION DEVICES, VISITING WITH A BUDDY,
AND ALWAYS BEING AWARE OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS. -10
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVING EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTHWARD, KEEPING
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON PREDOMINATELY DRY.
HOWEVER, COULD SEE A 15-20% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. DESPITE THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION, THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS DURING
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WILL SEE LOCALLY BREEZIER WINDS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY, WHERE
THERE IS A 35-45% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY, MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
RETURNING DRY, ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY FRIDAY-
SATURDAY, ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL TROUGHING
MOVING DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC/BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS ADDITIONAL TROUGHING,
BUT GENERALLY THIS SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP US
DRY. IF THIS PATTERN DOES PAN OUT, THIS WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. -10
AVIATION
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE.
AT INLAND TERMINALS, PREVAILING VFR IS VERY LIKELY (85% CHANCE
OR HIGHER) THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LOW
CLOUDS (10-15% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS) ARE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS FROM 12-18Z MON. DIURNAL WINDS NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE BELOW 5 KT TONIGHT, THEN BUILD TO 5-10
KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AT COASTAL TERMINALS, CHANCES FOR MVFR TO LIFR CIGS BENEATH
MARINE STRATUS ARE MUCH HIGHER, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS IS ONLY MODERATE. AS OF 0530Z, LIFR CIGS
ARE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL OR COAST, WITH SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE
AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORTING CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD
DECK, FAVORING A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS AT KONP BY 08-09Z MON.
RESURGENT STRATUS COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED BEYOND 12Z MON,
RETURNING CIGS NEAR 500 FT AT KONP AND RAISING CHANCES FOR MVFR
CIGS AT 1.5-2.5 KFT TO 60-80% AT KAST. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FURTHER MARINE STRATUS ARRIVE AFTER
00-03Z TUE. DIURNAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE TO AROUND
5 KT TONIGHT, THEN BUILD TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH CHANCES (GREATER THAN 90%) OF VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LARGELY HIGH CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE SKIES CLEAR MONDAY. DIURNAL
NORTHWEST WINDS EASE BELOW 5 KT TONIGHT, THEN BUILD TO 5-10 KT
AFTER 18Z MON. -36
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS LEADING TO THE
FORMATION OF A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE WATERS. THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN MEANS THAT WE ARE SEEING GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER ALL OF THE OUTER AND INNER WATERS, WITH WIND WAVES
INCREASING. SEEING ANYWHERE FROM 20-25 KT GUSTS OVER THE WATERS,
WITH BUOY 46050 REPORTING GUSTS UP TO 27 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS, THEN WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE. HAVE EXTENDED ALL
OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES, MAINTAINING A STAGGERED
CANCELLATION MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE NORTHERN WATERS
WILL EASE FIRST, FOLLOWING BY THE CENTRAL AND LASTLY THE
SOUTHERN. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 7 TO 9 FT AT 10
SECONDS BUT IT'S NOT UNCOMMON FOR NORTHERLY WINDS LIKE THIS TO
COMPOUND WITH THE PRIMARY NORTHWESTERLY SWELL DIRECTION. THUS,
THE WIND WAVE MAY BRING ISOLATED 10 FT SEAS - THOUGH NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR LONG LASTING.
CONDITIONS WILL EASE ON MONDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY SURGES MOVE OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. -27
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ251-271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ252-253-272-
273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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