677
FXUS66 KPQR 062125
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
225 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
FAIRLY SEASONABLE EARLY JULY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
NORTH OF THE REGION AND INCREASES ONSHORE FLOW LOCALLY WHILE
ALLOWING FOR MORE PROLIFIC MORNING LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFYING TO OUR EAST ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND
WARMER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE GRAZES THE
CASCADES TO THE EAST. LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA,
CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE PREVALENT ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ALONG THE CRESTLINE SOUTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON. DUE TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW, ANY OF THIS
BUILDING ACTIVITY LIKELY DRIFTS EASTWARD, HOWEVER, THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF LANE COUNTY WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
(~20%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE DRY
AND CALMER ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE CASCADE CRESTS.
HEADED INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVING EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA HELPING TO DE-AMPLIFY THE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE BULK OF THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTHWARD OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON, KEEPING NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
PREDOMINATELY DRY. HOWEVER, COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST,
MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE GENERAL LACK OF
PRECIPITATION, THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW TAMPING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND LIKELY BEYOND. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
WILL SEE LOCALLY BREEZIER WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY, WHERE THERE IS A 30-45%
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. -99/42
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
BY THE END OF THE WEEK
MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WEAKENING
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
INTO ALBERTA. AS THE TROUGH LOOSES SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE OVER THE
PAC NW, THE GREAT BASIN HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS DEVELOPING EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH, BUT THE RESULTING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOWN BY MOST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LIKELY LEADS TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
-99/47
AVIATION
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
MAINTAIN MARINE STRATUS NEAR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST TODAY WITH
IFR TO LOWER-END MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT KONP. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR
MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH ONSHORE AGAIN THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST,
WITH CHANCES FOR LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS INCREASING TO
OVER 60% AFTER 02-04Z TUE. THERE IS AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS TO REACH INLAND TERMINALS AFTER 12Z TUE.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT,
STRONGEST AT THE COAST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z TUESDAY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (10-20%) OF
MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z TUE. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 6-8 KT. /DH
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING OUT OF THE OF GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART.
SEAS AROUND 6 TO 7 FT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 TO
5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS BRIEFLY TIGHTEN AGAIN
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVENINGS, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY UP TO
15-25 KT, STRONGEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
FOULWEATHER. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE WATERS
ON FRIDAY RETURNING MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS. /DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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