458
FXUS66 KPQR 070538 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1038 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
FAIRLY SEASONABLE EARLY JULY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
NORTH OF THE REGION AND INCREASES ONSHORE FLOW LOCALLY WHILE
ALLOWING FOR MORE PROLIFIC MORNING LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFYING TO OUR EAST ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND
WARMER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE GRAZES THE
CASCADES TO THE EAST. LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA,
CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE PREVALENT ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ALONG THE CRESTLINE SOUTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON. DUE TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW, ANY OF THIS
BUILDING ACTIVITY LIKELY DRIFTS EASTWARD, HOWEVER, THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF LANE COUNTY WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
(~20%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE DRY
AND CALMER ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE CASCADE CRESTS.
HEADED INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVING EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA HELPING TO DE-AMPLIFY THE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE BULK OF THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTHWARD OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON, KEEPING NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
PREDOMINATELY DRY. HOWEVER, COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST,
MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE GENERAL LACK OF
PRECIPITATION, THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW TAMPING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND LIKELY BEYOND. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
WILL SEE LOCALLY BREEZIER WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY, WHERE THERE IS A 30-45%
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. -99/42
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
BY THE END OF THE WEEK
MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WEAKENING
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
INTO ALBERTA. AS THE TROUGH LOOSES SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE OVER THE
PAC NW, THE GREAT BASIN HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS DEVELOPING EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH, BUT THE RESULTING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOWN BY MOST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LIKELY LEADS TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
-99/47
AVIATION
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES TO PUSH
ON;AND ALONG THE COAST, SUPPORTING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KAST AND
KONP. CIGS AROUND OR BELOW 1000 FEET EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
18Z FOR BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING. THERE IS AROUND A
20-30% CHANCE FOR STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS TO REACH INLAND
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z TUE. CHANCES FOR STRATUS TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND KEUG ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 30-40%
STARTING AROUND 8Z TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN
5 KT OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING TO AROUND
10 KT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z TUESDAY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (20%) OF MVFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z TUE. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. -19/DH
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS AROUND
15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF THE OF GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
FALL APART. SEAS AROUND 6 TO 7 FT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
TO AROUND 4 TO 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN AGAIN BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVENINGS, WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY UP TO 15-25 KT, STRONGEST ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FOULWEATHER. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY RETURNING MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS.
/DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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