842
FXUS66 KPQR 070945
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
245 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
FAIRLY SEASONABLE EARLY JULY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND INCREASES ONSHORE FLOW LOCALLY WHILE ALLOWING
FOR MORE PROLIFIC MORNING LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFYING TO OUR
EAST ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TODAY AND TOMORROW, BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA HELPING TO DE-AMPLIFY THE
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE BULK OF THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA KEEPING THE
REGION PREDOMINATELY DRY. HOWEVER, COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COAST, MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DESPITE THE GENERAL LACK OF PRECIPITATION, THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH
THE MID-WEEK. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS DURING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
WILL SEE LOCALLY BREEZIER WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY, WHERE THERE IS A 30-45%
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS THURSDAY APPROACHES THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL BE WELL INLAND AND INTO THE ALBERTA PROVINCE OF CANADA.
AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LOOSE SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE OVER THE PAC
NW, THE GREAT BASIN HIGH WILL START TO RE-AMPLIFY INTO THE REGION
BRINGING ABOUT A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW. /42-99
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE
GREAT BASIN HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE AN ADDITIONAL
TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO MITIGATE THE GREAT BASIN
HIGH, THUS KEEPING A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
THIS LOW IS RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. STILL,
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE AT LEAST MAINTAINING NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH IS CAUSING THE WARMING TREND SEEN WITHIN VARIOUS
MODELS AND THEIR FAMILIES. STILL, OVERALL DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
LOOKING TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. /42
AVIATION
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES TO PUSH
ON;AND ALONG THE COAST, SUPPORTING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KAST AND
KONP. CIGS AROUND OR BELOW 1000 FEET EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
18Z FOR BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING. THERE IS AROUND A
20-30% CHANCE FOR STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS TO REACH INLAND
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z TUE. CHANCES FOR STRATUS TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND KEUG ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 30-40%
STARTING AROUND 8Z TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN
5 KT OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING TO AROUND
10 KT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z TUESDAY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (20%) OF MVFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z TUE. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. -19/DH
.MARINE..A BROAD, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DROP OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY
15 KT OR LESS ACROSS ALL WATERS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. WINDS BRIEFLY
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVENINGS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT,
STRONGEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FOULWEATHER. OVERALL,
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. /42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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