829
FXUS66 KPQR 071825 AAB
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1125 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
FAIRLY SEASONABLE EARLY JULY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF
THE REGION AND INCREASES ONSHORE FLOW LOCALLY WHILE ALLOWING
FOR MORE PROLIFIC MORNING LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AMPLIFYING TO OUR EAST ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TODAY AND TOMORROW,
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT DEPICTING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA HELPING TO
DE-AMPLIFY THE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE
BULK OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA
KEEPING THE REGION PREDOMINATELY DRY. HOWEVER, COULD SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE FAR
NORTHERN OREGON AND THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COAST, MAINLY ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE GENERAL LACK OF PRECIPITATION,
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS DURING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WILL SEE LOCALLY BREEZIER WINDS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY, WHERE THERE IS A 30-45% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THURSDAY
APPROACHES THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE
WELL INLAND AND INTO THE ALBERTA PROVINCE OF CANADA. AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES TO LOOSE SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE OVER THE PAC NW, THE
GREAT BASIN HIGH WILL START TO RE-AMPLIFY INTO THE REGION
BRINGING ABOUT A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW. /42-99
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE
GREAT BASIN HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE AN ADDITIONAL
TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO MITIGATE THE GREAT BASIN
HIGH, THUS KEEPING A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
THIS LOW IS RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. STILL,
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE AT LEAST MAINTAINING NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH IS CAUSING THE WARMING TREND SEEN WITHIN VARIOUS
MODELS AND THEIR FAMILIES. STILL, OVERALL DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
LOOKING TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. /42
AVIATION
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES TO RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST WHERE
LOWER-END MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST (AT LEAST A 60% CHANCE)
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BETWEEN 21-01Z, BUT MARINE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
IN THIS EVENING WITH AROUND A 30-50% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AFTER 03Z
WED. GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHER CHANCES FOR STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND INTO THE PORTLAND METRO AREA EARLY WED
MORNING, WITH AROUND A 40-60% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 12Z WED.
LOWER CHANCES (10-20%) FOR MVFR STRATUS EXIST FOR THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 10-12Z
WED MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASING TO AROUND 50%
AFTER 12Z WED. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 9-11 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. /DH
MARINE
A BROAD, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DROP OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS ALL WATERS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO
7 FT. WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVENINGS, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, STRONGEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE FOULWEATHER. OVERALL, RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. /42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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