782
FXUS66 KPQR 072055
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
154 PM PDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND VARYING DEGREES OF MORNING
CLOUD COVER WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES JULY 8-12 ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, ASIDE FROM A 10-15% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IN PACIFIC AND CLATSOP COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND
WARMER JULY 13-14 AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY UPSTREAM
OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
DISCUSSION...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, AND
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ASIDE FROM A 10-15% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IN PACIFIC AND CLATSOP COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. MODEL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEAR ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST EACH DAY. THIS
TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, ALONG WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
MORNING CLOUD COVER AND PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN. TOTAL MODEL SPREAD
FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS VERY NARROW, SUGGESTING
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN REGARDS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN 77-83 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR INLAND
VALLEYS, COOLEST OVER THE COWLITZ VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA AND
WARMEST OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, PORTLAND METRO, COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE, AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE
COAST AND HIGH CASCADES. MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ARE
EXPECTED BOTH INLAND AND AT THE COAST. AS SUCH, HEATRISK WILL STAY IN
THE MINOR CATEGORY. IT IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING A DECAYING COOL FRONT
WILL BRING A 10-15% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER PACIFIC AND
CLATSOP COUNTIES ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING WHEN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST 0.75-1.0 KM OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NO IMPACTS WOULD OCCUR WITH THIS PRECIPITATION IF IT
DOES OCCUR, WITH TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES BEGINS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND FOR INLAND VALLEYS, WITH HIGHS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S. THE OUTCOME WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW
WIDESPREAD MORNING CLOUD COVER IS AND HOW EARLY IN THE DAY CLOUD
COVER IS ABLE TO SCATTER OUT. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
SUNDAY, AND THE DETERMINISTIC NBM REFLECTS THIS BY KEEPING HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ON SATURDAY VERSUS LOW TO MID 80S ON
SUNDAY.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THIS WARMING TREND IS IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
UPSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. SINCE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND FAR REMOVED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, EXTREME HEAT IS
NOT EXPECTED. INSTEAD, A MORE MODEST WARM-UP IS LIKELY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY PEAKING SOMEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR INLAND VALLEYS. MEANWHILE, THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH
HIGHS STAYING IN THE 60S. THERE IS A 15-35% CHANCE FOR HIGHS OF 90
DEGREES OR WARMER ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
CHANCES FOR HIGHS ABOVE 95 DEGREES ARE UNDER 10%, WHICH FURTHER BACKS
UP THE EXPECTATION THAT EXTREME HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS,
THE SLIGHT WARM-UP MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE FROM A
MINOR HEATRISK TO A MODERATE HEATRISK; PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR A MODERATE HEATRISK IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. -23
AVIATION
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. AS OF 21Z, MARINE STRATUS HAS RETREATED OFFSHORE. COASTAL
TERMINALS MAY SEE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 00-01Z, BUT THIS
BREAK WILL BE BRIEF AS MARINE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
IN THIS EVENING WITH AROUND A 30-50% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AFTER 03Z
WED. GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHER CHANCES FOR STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND INTO THE PORTLAND METRO AREA EARLY WED
MORNING, WITH AROUND A 40-60% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 12Z WED.
LOWER CHANCES (10-20%) FOR MVFR STRATUS EXIST FOR THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 10-12Z
WED MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASING TO AROUND 50%
AFTER 12Z WED. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 9-11 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. /DH
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WATERS LATER WED AFTERNOON AS
NORTHERLIES INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 20 KT SOUTH OF CAPE
FALCON THROUGH WED NIGHT. THERE IS AROUND A 40-50% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT SOUTH OF CAPE FOULWEATHER, SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
WINDS EASING ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. /DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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