774
FXUS66 KPQR 081725 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1025 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2026
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS
SYNOPSIS
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND VARYING DEGREES OF MORNING
CLOUD COVER WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES JULY 8-11 ALONG
WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER JULY 12-14
AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY UPSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES,
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. MODEL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEAR
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. THIS TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO RESULT IN VARYING DEGREES
OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN. EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR INLAND VALLEYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH
CASCADES THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES, MODEL
SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES BEGINS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND FOR INLAND VALLEYS, WITH HIGHS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S, WITH THE COAST AND CASCADES WARMING IN
A SIMILAR PATTERN, THUS HAVING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. THE DAYTIME HIGH WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW
WIDESPREAD MORNING CLOUD COVER IS AND HOW EARLY IN THE DAY CLOUD
COVER IS ABLE TO SCATTER OUT. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY WHEN COMPARED
TO SUNDAY.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THIS WARMING TREND IS IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
UPSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. SINCE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND FAR REMOVED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, EXTREME HEAT IS
NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. INSTEAD, A MORE MODEST
WARM-UP IS LIKELY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR INLAND VALLEYS. MEANWHILE, THE COAST
WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS A 15-35% CHANCE FOR HIGHS OF
90 DEGREES OR WARMER ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY AND A 20-50% CHANCE FOR HIGHS OF 90 DEGREES OR WARMER ON
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR HIGHS ABOVE 95 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ARE AROUND 10-20%, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ON TUESDAY.
WHILE THIS PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR EXTREME HEAT; PROBABILISTIC
HEATRISK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE FOR MODERATE
HEATRISK WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY,PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO,
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES ON TUESDAY. /42-23
AVIATION
RELATIVELY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS PUSHED MARINE STRATUS TO THE COAST AND
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY, REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS KUAO. IFR TO LOWER-END MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH 19-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE INLAND MVFR STRATUS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 18-20Z.
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR
INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, AS THERE IS
CURRENTLY JUST A 10-20% CHANCE FOR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE MARINE STRATUS
PUSH BACK ONSHORE AFTER 04-08Z THURSDAY WITH AROUND A 30-40%
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
10-15 KT, WHILE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD
VFR AROUND 18-20Z AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00-06Z THU. /DH
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS, THOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCING GUSTS UP TO 25
KT NEAR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FOULWEATHER BETWEEN
3 PM TODAY AND 2 AM TONIGHT. ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON.
CONDITIONS EASE SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY, AND MORESO ON FRIDAY, AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 4 TO 6 FT AS RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. /DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PZZ253-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page