583
FXUS66 KPQR 102226
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
326 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE MID
LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO WARM
FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, WILL SEE MINIMAL CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST FROM DAY TO DAY THOUGH.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
OVERALL VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS PERSISTENT
WITH MINIMAL FORCING FOR CHANGE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CAN BE
DESCRIBED BY A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ALOFT
AS A LOW FORMS OFF OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THIS LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE IT SLOWLY SHIFTS INLAND OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE, THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WITH
MARINE STRATUS IN THE MORNING CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND
NEAR 80 DEG F IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. HIGH RESOLUTION
ENSEMBLES THOUGH DO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURE ON
SATURDAY, LIKELY DUE TO THEM MAINTAINING MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY, WHEREAS THE NBM IS SHOWING MUCH LESS
CLOUD COVER. IN THE CASE OF MORE DENSE CLOUDS THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE COULD RANGE FROM AROUND 65-75 DEGREES F IN PORTLAND
(THE 10TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE).
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, THOUGH AS THE LOW
ALOFT SHIFTS INLAND, MORE WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN AT THE SURFACE.
IN THE AFTERNOON, 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 11-14 DEG
C, AND CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT MOVING IN CAN REASONABLY SAY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE REFS SHOWS THE
10TH-90TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT PORTLAND AROUND 74-81
DEG F. IN COMPARISON, THE NBM HAS A SKEWED HIGHER SPREAD RANGING
FROM 77-83 DEG F. EITHER WAY, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS BEING AROUND 80 DEGREES INLAND, AND AROUND 60-65 DEG F
ALONG THE COAST. THE CASCADES TOO WILL REMAIN WARM CONSIDERING
THE ELEVATION WITH A 10% CHANCE OF A HIGH OF 77 DEG F ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONSHORE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH
SLIGHTLY BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL
HEATING. -27
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE REALLY BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ON
MONDAY WHICH WILL TREND CONDITIONS TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PEAK BEING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AROUND 15-17 DEG C. THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING
INLAND, WITH AROUND HALF OF THE ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING WEAK
TROUGH FORMING NEAR THE COAST LINE. THIS PATTERN ORIENTATION
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON JUST HOW HOT CONDITIONS WILL
BE. THE SPREAD OF POSSIBILITIES IS QUITE WIDE WITH AROUND A 8-10
DEG F SPREAD BETWEEN THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE ALONG THE COAST
AND AROUND A 12 DEG F SPREAD IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. LETS DIVE
INTO A FEW OF THE LOCATIONS FOR AN EXAMPLE OF THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY WE ARE DEALING WITH. I WILL NOTE THAT MODELS HAVE
FLUCTUATED QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST 24-HOURS.
FOR TUESDAY, PORTLAND IS SHOWING A 10% CHANCE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 85 DEG F, AND EQUAL CHANCES OF THEM BEING 98
DEG F. ELSEWHERE IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SHOWS SIMILAR RANGES.
THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY RANGES FROM AROUND 85-95 DEG F, AND
LONGVIEW 82-95 DEG F. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY THOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY GROWS SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT, THE RANGE FROM THE
COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE TO THE WARMEST (10TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILE) IS AROUND 20 DEG FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND 10
DEG FOR THE COAST. IN FACT THERE IS AROUND A 10% CHANCE OF HIGHS
OF 70-75 DEG F FOR THE COAST, AND 100-105 DEG F FOR THE INLAND
VALLEYS INCLUDING SOME AREAS LIKE ESTACADA AND STAYTON. WITH
THIS BEING SAID THOUGH, THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 80S. THEREFORE, NOT BITING ON ANY SPECIFIC OUTCOME
IN PARTICULAR AND HAVE MORESO STUCK WITH THE MEDIAN WITHIN THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THE OUTLIERS. A SIMILAR TREND
OCCURS THUS FAR ON THURSDAY.
IF THESE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN, WE ARE LOOKING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE HEATRISK WITH A 20% CHANCE OF MAJOR
HEATRISK FOR URBAN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. -27
AVIATION
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TOWARDS AIRSPACE,
TURNING THE FLOW ALOFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR INLAND TERMINALS. FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS, SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS
SOUTH OF KTMK, WITH MORE PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER AROUND KAST. WILL
NOTE THAT CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT ALONG THE NORTH COAST
SO WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS, HIGHEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT A FEW INLAND TERMINALS.
OVERNIGHT, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RETURN OF MVFR
CIGS TO THE COAST WITH ANOTHER MARINE PUSH. INLAND TOO IS SHOWING
AROUND A 40-60% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS, WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE
KEEPING AREAS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 3500 FT. BACK BUILDING OFF OF
THE CASCADES WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER ON WHETHER WE SEE THE DEEP
STRATUS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A 40-70% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS; THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THEY INSTEAD COULD REMAIN JUST
ABOVE 3000 FT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. -27
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RETURNING NORTHERLY WINDS LATER SATURDAY
AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WATERS OUT TO 30-40 NM. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT AS RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. -19/DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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