194
FXUS66 KPQR 111137
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
437 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE MID
LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. TROUGHING OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
TODAY, SUPPORTING AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG
THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN LAST NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND AS
WELL. THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY, EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING BY THE AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL KEEPING THE
TEMPERATURES COOLER. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS TOWARD THE
PACNW, A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE OREGON COAST, SENDING A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
HEIGHTS ALOFT REBOUND HEADING INTO SUNDAY, SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN SEASONABLE AND DRY. -19
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH NEXT
WEEK STARTING OUT WITH A WARM-UP AS RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BUILDS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO JUMP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
(LOCALIZED 90S) ON MONDAY AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON TUESDAY
FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS JUMP
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE
WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AND HAS THE HIGHEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD
PROBABILITIES FOR 90 DEGREES. CHANCES ARE 30-50% ALONG THE I-5
CORRIDOR AND AROUND THE PORTLAND METRO WITH LOWER CHANCES OF
15-30% WITHIN THE CASCADE AND COAST RANGE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS
ALSO A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO REACH 95,
MAINLY AROUND THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TUALATIN VALLEY.
MODERATE HEATRISK FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAS INCREASED
ACROSS THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO, WILLAMETTE VALLEY, AND
WITHIN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. CHANCES FOR MAJOR HEATRISK
REMAIN LESS THAN 10%.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY SHOW A NEARLY 20 DEGREE
SPREAD BETWEEN THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILES IN SOME AREAS, RANGING
FROM THE MID 70 TO THE MID 90S. THIS IS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
VARY DRASTICALLY AMONG THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES, LEADING TO A
LARGE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WOULD YIELD A MODERATE HEATRISK BUT
THERE REMAINS AROUND 5-10% FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACNW ON THURSDAY INCREASES WITH A A DIP
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND, CLUSTER ANALYSIS
DEPICTS THE TROUGH PROGRESSING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE THE RIDGE REBUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM-UP IN THE AREA BUT GIVEN THE LONG LEAD
TIME, THE DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. -19
AVIATION
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 2-4 KFT CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, SUPPORTING A MIX OF MOSTLY MVFR AND
VFR FLIGHT LEVELS. KONP IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME WITH CIGS
BELOW 500 FEET. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE INLAND WHILE
ALSO SLOWLY LOWERING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL
TERMINALS BEFORE DAWN. CONDITIONS INLAND EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST.
CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE LAYER REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST IS
MODERATE BUT INLAND IT REMAINS LOW FOR TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
PORTLAND METRO WITH LOWER CIGS AROUND KTTD. STILL EXPECTING A
SHORT PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KPDX BEFORE DAWN AND
THEN LIFT LATE IN THE MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS TURNING WESTERLY
DURING THE DAY AT AROUND 10 KT. -19
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RETURNING NORTHERLY WINDS LATER SATURDAY
AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WATERS OUT TO 30-40 NM. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 4 TO 6 FT AS RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. -19/DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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