285
FXUS66 KPQR 131724
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1024 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
EXPECTED FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME
HAVE INCREASED WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. TRENDING WARM
AND DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
COOL OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY REMAIN HIGH AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THE 500 MB PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY
WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE A SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, OFF THE WESTERN CANADA COAST AND TOWARD
HE PACNW. AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
THE SHORT WAVE PINCHES OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW SMALL WITH INTERIOR LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S TODAY AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON TUESDAY. COASTAL AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AS ON SHORE
FLOW PERSISTS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY
CASCADES TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SUBTLE
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL
OREGON, SUPPORTING A 20-30% CHANCE FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER AND A
~10% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST BUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
HAZY SKIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN LANE COUNTY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TODAY DUE TO SMOKE COMING FROM A WILDFIRE
BURNING IN NORTHWEST JACKSON COUNTY BETWEEN WIMER, OR AND SHADY
GROVE, OR. THE RRFS SMOKE MODEL BACKS UP THIS EXPECTATION, WITH
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 25 MG/M^2 NEAR
THE CASCADE CREST. FORTUNATELY, SMOKE ALOFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN EASTERN LANE COUNTY. -19/23
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED FOR TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. THIS MEANS THE WARMER SOLUTION IS
FAVORED AT THIS TIME WITH A MUCH SMALLER RANGE IN 10TH- 90TH
TEMPERATURES, NOW RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THIS IS STILL A DECENT SPREAD BUT MUCH
BETTER THAN A FEW DAYS AGO. CLUSTER ANALYSIS FAVORS THIS
SOLUTION WITH 50% OF MEMBERS KEEPING THE LOW OFFSHORE, AROUND
20% SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE WA/OR COAST BUT NOT QUITE OVERHEAD,
AND THE REMAINING 30% WITH THE DISTURBANCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
BUT WEAKER. IF THE LOW TAKES THE OVERHEAD ROUTE, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE COOLER END OF THE SPREAD. THE BIGGER
QUESTION HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THURSDAY REGARDING THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LOW. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS A MAJORITY, AROUND 50%
OF MEMBERS, DEPICTING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AROUND 30% OF
MEMBERS SHOW THE WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE WA/OR COAST AND THE
REMAINING MEMBERS ACTUALLY HAVE THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING BUT
SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTHWEST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THIS
TIME, THE FAVORED SOLUTION IS FOR WEDNESDAY TO BE ON THE WARMER
SIDE WITH INTERIOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND THURSDAY
TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.
HOWEVER, TOTAL MODEL SPREAD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
REMAINS LARGE DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, WITH INLAND HIGHS RANGING
ANYWHERE FROM THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 90S PER THE NBM 10TH-90TH
PERCENTILE. GIVEN HOW THE ENSEMBLES HAVE STRUGGLED, THIS
SOLUTION IS FAR FROM SET IN STONE.
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY COULD BE SHOWERY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE
REFLECTS THIS WELL AND HAS INCREASED POPS TO 20-40% WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE RANGE BETWEEN 10- 20% ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST OR AND
SOUTHWEST WA FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADE CREST, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER SOUTHWEST WA, THE NORTH OR
COAST/COAST RANGE, LOWER COLUMBIA, AND PORTLAND METRO. THERE IS
A 1-10% CHANCE FOR 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WA CASCADES AND COAST RANGE, WHICH REPRESENTS THE
WETTEST MODEL SOLUTIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ACTUALLY INCREASES A BIT FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S OR 90S FOR
INLAND VALLEYS. CHANCES FOR HIGHS OF 90 DEGREES OR WARMER PEAK ON
SUNDAY AT 50-60% ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, PORTLAND METRO,
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES FOR
HIGHS ABOVE 100 DEGREES ARE AROUND 5-15%, SUGGESTING EXTREME
HEAT AND SIGNIFICANT HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY TO OCCUR
NEXT WEEKEND. BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST, IT IS POSSIBLE THE WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. -19/23
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT EXPECTED. WINDS ALONG
THE COAST COULD GUST UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH 03Z TUE.
THERE'S A CHANCE OF SHALLOW MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING: 20-50% CHANCE ANYTIME BETWEEN 09-16Z
TUE AT KONP AND 20-30% CHANCE ANYTIME BETWEEN 12-15Z AT KAST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5-8 KT. -03
MARINE
BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TO AROUND 20 KT EACH DAY. SEAS COULD BE
CHOPPY AT TIMES WITH HEIGHTS MAINLY IN THE 4-6 FOOT RANGE BUT
COULD SEE SOME 7 FOOT SEAS AT 8-10 SECONDS. ISOLATED STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA).
A SCA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7AM FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FOR ROUGH
SEAS IN DUE TO A STRONG EBB AND SEAS OF 7 FT. ANOTHER SCA WILL BE
IN EFFECT FROM 2AM TO 9AM FOR ANOTHER VERY STRONG EBB CURRENT
TUESDAY MORNING -19
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ210.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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