785
FXUS66 KPQR 141116
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
416 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ASIDE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WHILE MID TO UPPER 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH
MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BUT REMAINING CONFINED TO
THE COASTAL STRIP. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING, ASIDE FROM A 15-30% CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE OREGON CASCADES DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
SUPPORT EACH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
INTO STORM UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY LIMIT VERTICAL GROWTH OF ANY
CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP. IN TURN, THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHTNING AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS. THE NBM BACKS THIS
UP, PRODUCING ONLY A 5-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES WITH A TRACE TO 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR
THE CASCADE CREST.
A SPLIT REMAINS AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, EVIDENT IN THE WPC
CLUSTER ANALYSIS, REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. ~60-70% OF ENS/GEPS MEMBERS FAVOR THE CLOSED LOW COMING
ONSHORE OR ALREADY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GEFS ONLY
SHOWS THIS IN 20% OF MEMBERS. THE GEFS SOLUTIONS FAVOR THE
CLOSED LOW DRIFTING FARTHER SOUTHWEST OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH AROUND 60% OF MEMBERS. THIS SPLIT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST HEADING INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. IF THE LOW IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, EXPECT HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE FOR PRECIPITATION,
HIGHER QPF TOTALS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE DETERMINISTIC
NBM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S BUT THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILES RANGES FROM THE LOW 70S TO THE MID 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. LARGE MODEL SPREAD IS EVIDENT FOR QPF AS
WELL, WITH THE NBM MIN TO MAX 24-QPF VALUES RANGING FROM NO RAIN
AT ALL TO OVER 0.25-0.50 INCHES, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTH OF SALEM IN NORTHWEST OREGON. IF
THE LOW IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES OVER THE REGION, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1", CLOUD LAYER WINDS NEAR 15-20 KT, AND
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS NEAR 3000-3500 METERS. -19/23
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST ACTUALLY INCREASES A BIT FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
DESPITE TOTAL MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES REMAINING LARGE.
OVERALL, MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS EXACT HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR INLAND VALLEYS, WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER
80S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR HIGHS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
AS OF THIS FORECAST, SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE
SIMILARLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY HIGHS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES ARE
40-60% FOR INLAND VALLEYS, EXCEPT 30-40% OVER THE COWLITZ VALLEY
AND LOWER COLUMBIA. ON MONDAY, CHANCES ARE 40-70% FOR ALL
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. CHANCES FOR 100 DEGREES OR GREATER BOTH DAYS
ARE LOCALLY 5-10% AROUND THE PORTLAND METRO AND INTO THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. MAJOR HEATRISK PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY
RANGE FROM 10-20% AND ON MONDAY FROM 15- 30%. EXTREME HEAT IS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY, CHECK IN
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THE COAST WOULD
REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME
DUE TO LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS. BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST, IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST BEYOND
MONDAY. -19/23
AVIATION
STRATUS HAS BUILT NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL COAST
TO THE LONG BEACH PENINSULA IN WASHINGTON. MARINE STRATUS WILL
STAY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL STRIP, SUPPORTING IFR OR LOWER CIGS
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 16-18Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT OVER THE
CASCADES WHERE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING 5-10 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MARINE STRATUS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST,
SUPPORTING LOWERED CIGS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-8 KT. -19/12
MARINE
BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TO AROUND 20 KT EACH DAY. SEAS
COULD BE CHOPPY AT TIMES WITH HEIGHTS MAINLY IN THE 4-6 FOOT
RANGE BUT COULD SEE SOME 7 FOOT SEAS AT 8-10 SECONDS. ISOLATED
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA).
A SCA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FOR
ROUGH SEAS DUE TO A VERY STRONG EBB CURRENT LEADING TO SEAS OF 6
TO 8 FT. ANOTHER SCA WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ANOTHER STRONG EBB
FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. -19
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ210.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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