174
FXUS66 KPQR 151807
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1107 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED BEFORE A BRIEF PATTERN
SHIFT TO END THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN. DRYING OCCURS STARTING FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN. MODERATE HEATRISK
FORECAST FOR URBAN AREAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS BEFORE A SHORT PERIOD OF CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL TO START
BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS (10-20% CHANCE) ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THE LOW MOVES MORE OVERHEAD TONIGHT, CHANCES WEST OF THE CREST
INCREASE. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS NORTH HIGHWAY 20 AT
50-80% FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL HAVE DECREASED FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS TO
20-30% WHILE CHANCES OVER THE COAST RANGE AND COAST REMAINS
AROUND 30-60%. SOME HI-RES MODELS ARE DEPICTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COAST RANGE AS SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW HELPS CONVECTIVE INITIATION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
15-30% FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SUPPORTS MORE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. FRIDAY
WILL SEE A 3-5 DEGREE WARM-UP INLAND WITH HIGHS JUMPING INTO THE
LOW 80S AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD AND 500 MB HEIGHTS
REBOUND OVER THE REGION. -19
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE 500 MB PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD
INTO THE PACNW, SUPPORTING A WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS CAN EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY, BUILDING INTO THE LOW 90S FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN THIS PATTERN, MARINE STRATUS IS LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THOUGH IT COULD TRANSITION DOWN THE
COLUMBIA RIVER INTO THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. IF CLOUD COVER
BECOMES PERVASIVE, IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY. THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE NBM IN
EXACT HIGH TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO UPPER 90S
IN THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILES SO COULD SEE ADJUSTMENTS MOVING
FORWARD. MODERATE HEATRISK IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS, INCLUDING THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS, FOR BOTH OF
THESE DAYS. CHANCES FOR MAJOR HEATRISK ARE GENERALLY 10-30% FOR
THE PORTLAND METRO AND COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO ANCHOR THE RIDGE OVER THE CONUS. -19/27
AVIATION
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SPINS OFFSHORE. PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE STRATUS IS FORECAST TO RETURN ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CIGS, AS EARLY AS 01-03Z THU AT KONP AND 03-06Z
THU AT KAST. A STRONGER MARINE PUSH TONIGHT IS PRODUCING A 25-45%
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT MOST INLAND SITES, HIGHER AT 50-70% AT KEUG,
AFTER 10-12Z THU. ANY LOWERED CIGS INLAND SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
18-21Z THU. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND LIGHT, INCREASING
TO 8-10 KTS AFTER 21-23Z WED. THE EXCEPT IS KONP WHERE WINDS ARE 11-
13 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WINDS DECREASE AFTER 03-
06Z THU.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SALEM. INITIALLY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 15-
20% WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADES BETWEEN 20Z WED - 12Z THU.
THEN CHANCES SPREAD WEST TO THE COAST AND INCREASE TO 15-25% FROM 12-
21Z THU, WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND COAST BETWEEN
12-18Z. MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS. SINCE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AT EACH
TERMINAL, HAVE NOT ADDED TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SMOKE ALOFT IS MOVING NORTH INTO NW OR AND SW WA FROM A WILDFIRE IN
SOUTHERN OR NORTH OF KMFR. THIS MAY AT TIMES PRODUCE A BKN LAYER
AROUND 15-25 KFT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS 7-10 KT DECREASE AFTER 06Z THU THEN SHIFT
SOUTHERLY BY 12-14Z THU. THERE'S A 20-30% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO
MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-16Z THU. IF THIS DOES OCCUR,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18-21Z THU. THERE'S A 15-20%
CHANCE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-18Z WED WITH
MAIN CONCERN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
-03
MARINE
BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TO AROUND 20 KT EACH DAY. SEAS
COULD BE CHOPPY AT TIMES WITH HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET BUT COULD SEE
SOME 7 FOOT SEAS AT 8-10 SECONDS. THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA WINDS FOR ALL WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
A SCA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM FOR ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER BAR DUE TO A VERY STRONG EBB CURRENT LEADING TO SEAS OF 6
TO 7 FT. ANOTHER SCA FOR STRONG EBB CURRENT AND CHOPPY SEAS THURSDAY
MORNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM. -19
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ210.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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