331
FXUS66 KPQR 160449 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
948 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES FEED INTO AN EVENING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
EVENING OVER THE CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS, THEN WILL
PROGRESS WESTWARD IMPACTING THE NORTH COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. AROUND A 20-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEY HAVE INITIATED A BIT EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. COOLER ON THURSDAY, THEN HEATING UP
AND DRYING OUT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
CASCADES APPEAR TO BE OVER PERFORMING IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING AND
POTENTIAL HAIL. CAPE VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT WE NORMALLY SEE FOR
THIS REGION, AND WE CANNOT RULE OUT QUARTER INCH TO HALF IN HAIL IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. CONTINUING TO WATCH RADAR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH THESE STORMS OVER PERFORMING, THERE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND WHAT THE PROBABILITIES MAY
SUGGEST.
A TIGHTENING LOW ALOFT IS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER TODAY AS IT SPINS
IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OFF OF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST.
THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASED LEVEL OF INSTABILITY OVER
THE REGION. WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ERODES AND
SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. RADAR AND
SATELLITE HAVE DETECTED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE CASCADES OF LINN AND LANE COUNTIES AND THOSE CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE AS WE MOVE NORTHWARD. OVERALL LOOKING AT A DYNAMIC SCENARIO
WITH A MIX OF LIGHTNING AND RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL IN SOME OF
THESE STORMS. THERE IS AROUND A 15-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY NORTH OF SALEM, AND AROUND A 20-30%
CHANCE ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS. TIMING
WISE, THE CASCADES WILL MAINLY BE IMPACTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE THE COAST WILL SEE THOSE STORMS CLOSER TO THURSDAY
MORNING. MOST STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED.
ON THURSDAY, STORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BUT SHOWERS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY, THE LOW WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FILL INTO THE REGION. WHILE HIGHS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH, WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAY. OVERALL THOUGH, LOOKING AT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. -27
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO THE PACNW, SUPPORTING
A WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY,
BUILDING INTO THE LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN THIS
PATTERN, MARINE STRATUS IS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THOUGH IT COULD TRANSITION DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER INTO THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. IF CLOUD COVER BECOMES PERVASIVE, IT WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY. THERE
IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE NBM IN EXACT HIGH TEMPERATURES, RANGING
FROM THE MID 80S TO UPPER 90S IN THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILES SO
COULD SEE ADJUSTMENTS MOVING FORWARD. MODERATE HEATRISK IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS, INCLUDING THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS, FOR BOTH OF THESE DAYS. CHANCES FOR MAJOR
HEATRISK ARE GENERALLY 10-30% FOR THE PORTLAND METRO AND
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ANCHOR THE
RIDGE OVER THE CONUS. -19/27
AVIATION
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SPINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE STRATUS HAS RETURNED
TO THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH AT LEAST LOW-END MVFR CIGS. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES (40-60%) FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST ARE
BETWEEN 06-12Z THU. A STRONGER MARINE PUSH TONIGHT IS BRINGING A
30-50% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT MOST INLAND TERMINALS, EXCEPT AROUND
60-80% AT KEUG AFTER 12Z THU. ANY LOWERED CIGS INLAND SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 19-21Z THU.
THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF SALEM. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST FROM THE
CASCADES TO THE COAST, ALONG WITH A 15-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 21Z THU, WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND
COAST BETWEEN 12-18Z. MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ALONG WITH BRIEF ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS.
SMOKE ALOFT IS MOVING NORTH INTO NW OR AND SW WA FROM A WILDFIRE
IN SOUTHERN OR NORTH OF KMFR. THIS MAY AT TIMES PRODUCE A BKN
LAYER AROUND 15-25 KFT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU.
CHANCES FOR MVFR STRATUS INCREASE TO AROUND 40-50% BETWEEN 14-19Z
THU MORNING AS A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER PUSHES INLAND. THERE IS
ALSO A 15-20% CHANCE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
12-18Z THU. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR THU
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
12-14Z THU. /DH
MARINE
BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TO AROUND 20 KT EACH DAY. SEAS
COULD BE CHOPPY AT TIMES WITH HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET BUT COULD SEE
SOME 7 FOOT SEAS AT 8-10 SECONDS. THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA WINDS FOR ALL WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
A SCA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM FOR ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER BAR DUE TO A VERY STRONG EBB CURRENT LEADING TO SEAS OF 6
TO 7 FT. ANOTHER SCA FOR STRONG EBB CURRENT AND CHOPPY SEAS THURSDAY
MORNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM. -19
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ210.
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