605
FXUS66 KPQR 161804 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1103 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS. UPDATED PQR
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
SYNOPSIS
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING AS
AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION DWINDLES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COOLER ON TODAY,
THEN HEATING UP AND DRYING OUT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HAS STARTED TO SHIFT ONSHORE,
BRINGING INCREASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
THIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SITS ABOVE 750-650 MB WITH
400-600 J/KG OR CAPE. WHILE THIS IS DEFINITELY ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SHEAR IS GENERALLY LACKING
AS WINDS UP TO 500 MB ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL THUS LIMITING THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HI-RES MODELS DEPICT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY LETTING UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION, QPF TOTALS WILL VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOME PLACES POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY WHILE OTHERS RECEIVE A TENTH
OR TWO. CHANCES FOR 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN CONTINUE TO DECREASE
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF SALEM AT LESS THAN 5%, 20- 30% AROUND THE
PORTLAND METRO AND CASCADES, AND THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ALONG THE
COAST AND COAST RANGE AT 40-60%. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS FORCING AND INSTABILITY DECREASE AS
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
PLEASANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EXPECTED FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
AS THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS MORE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL SEE A 3-5 DEGREE WARM-UP
INLAND WITH HIGHS JUMPING INTO THE LOW 80S AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES NORTHWARD AND 500 MB HEIGHTS REBOUND OVER THE REGION. -19
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE 500 MB PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD
INTO THE PACNW, SUPPORTING A WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
ON SATURDAY, BUILDING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY
AND BEYOND. IN THIS PATTERN, MARINE STRATUS IS LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THOUGH IT COULD TRANSITION DOWN THE
COLUMBIA RIVER INTO THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. IF CLOUD COVER
BECOMES PERVASIVE, IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY. THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE NBM IN
EXACT HIGH TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S IN
THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILES SO COULD SEE ADJUSTMENTS MOVING
FORWARD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THE UPPER
90S HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE TREND IS WARM BUT NOT EXTREME
HEAT AT THIS POINT. MODERATE HEATRISK IS MOST LIKELY AT THIS
POINT WITH MAJOR HEATRISK POTENTIAL CONTINUING TO DECREASE.
STILL, THERE IS A 5-15% CHANCE FOR MAJOR HEATRISK MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE PORTLAND METRO, COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE, AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND COWLITZ VALLEYS. -19/27
AVIATION
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SPINS OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. MARINE STRATUS PERSISTS ALONG
THE COAST WITH MVFR CIGS. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 18Z BEFORE DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY.
A STRONGER MARINE PUSH IS BRINGING A 30-50% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
AT MOST INLAND TERMINALS, EXCEPT AROUND 60-80% AT KEUG AFTER
12Z. ANY LOWERED CIGS INLAND SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 19-21Z
THU.
THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH
OF SALEM. BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND COAST BETWEEN
12-18Z. MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
ALONG WITH BRIEF ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS.
SMOKE ALOFT IS MOVING NORTH INTO NW OR AND SW WA FROM A WILDFIRE
IN SOUTHERN OR NORTH OF KMFR. THIS MAY AT TIMES PRODUCE A BKN
LAYER AROUND 15-25 KFT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.
CHANCES FOR MVFR STRATUS INCREASE TO AROUND 40-50% BETWEEN
14-19Z AS A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER PUSHES INLAND. THERE IS ALSO
A 15-20% CHANCE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TO AROUND 10 KT LATE IN THE
MORNING. -19/DH
MARINE
BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TO AROUND 20 KT EACH DAY. SEAS
COULD BE CHOPPY AT TIMES WITH HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET BUT COULD SEE
SOME 7-8 FOOT SEAS AT 8-10 SECONDS ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A 30-60%
CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA WINDS FOR ALL
WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
A SCA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM FOR ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR DUE TO A VERY STRONG EBB CURRENT LEADING TO
SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT. ANOTHER SCA FOR STRONG EBB CURRENT AND CHOPPY
SEAS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM. -19
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ210.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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