463
FXUS66 KPQR 161805 AAB
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1103 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS. UPDATED PQR
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
SYNOPSIS
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING AS
AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION DWINDLES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COOLER ON TODAY,
THEN HEATING UP AND DRYING OUT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HAS STARTED TO SHIFT ONSHORE,
BRINGING INCREASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
THIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SITS ABOVE 750-650 MB WITH
400-600 J/KG OR CAPE. WHILE THIS IS DEFINITELY ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SHEAR IS GENERALLY LACKING
AS WINDS UP TO 500 MB ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL THUS LIMITING THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HI-RES MODELS DEPICT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY LETTING UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION, QPF TOTALS WILL VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOME PLACES POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY WHILE OTHERS RECEIVE A TENTH
OR TWO. CHANCES FOR 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN CONTINUE TO DECREASE
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF SALEM AT LESS THAN 5%, 20- 30% AROUND THE
PORTLAND METRO AND CASCADES, AND THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ALONG THE
COAST AND COAST RANGE AT 40-60%. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS FORCING AND INSTABILITY DECREASE AS
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
PLEASANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EXPECTED FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
AS THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS MORE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL SEE A 3-5 DEGREE WARM-UP
INLAND WITH HIGHS JUMPING INTO THE LOW 80S AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES NORTHWARD AND 500 MB HEIGHTS REBOUND OVER THE REGION. -19
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE 500 MB PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD
INTO THE PACNW, SUPPORTING A WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
ON SATURDAY, BUILDING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY
AND BEYOND. IN THIS PATTERN, MARINE STRATUS IS LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THOUGH IT COULD TRANSITION DOWN THE
COLUMBIA RIVER INTO THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. IF CLOUD COVER
BECOMES PERVASIVE, IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY. THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE NBM IN
EXACT HIGH TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S IN
THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILES SO COULD SEE ADJUSTMENTS MOVING
FORWARD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THE UPPER
90S HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE TREND IS WARM BUT NOT EXTREME
HEAT AT THIS POINT. MODERATE HEATRISK IS MOST LIKELY AT THIS
POINT WITH MAJOR HEATRISK POTENTIAL CONTINUING TO DECREASE.
STILL, THERE IS A 5-15% CHANCE FOR MAJOR HEATRISK MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE PORTLAND METRO, COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE, AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND COWLITZ VALLEYS. -19/27
AVIATION
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SPINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST WA AND FAR NORTHWEST OR
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM 1745Z
THURSDAY SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA,
EXCEPT AT KAST WHERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED WITHIN A FEW MILES OF
THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO END NEAR KAST BY 19Z
THURSDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING OBSERVED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.
WIDESPREAD LOW MARINE STRATUS ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING
FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT TO LOW-END VFR FOR
INLAND TERMINALS BY 20-22Z THURSDAY. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 12Z FRIDAY AT KPDX AND KTTD,
AND A 30-40% CHANCE AT KHIO, KUAO, KSLE AND KEUG. COASTAL
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, WITH BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO LOW-END
VFR POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON (60% CHANCE).
LASTLY, SMOKE ALOFT IS MOVING NORTH INTO NW OR AND SW WA FROM A
WILDFIRE IN SOUTHWEST OR BURNING TO THE NORTH OF KMFR. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A BROKEN SMOKE LAYER AROUND 15-25 KFT AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CASCADES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH
20-21Z THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING TO LOW-END VFR THRESHOLDS. CHANCES
FOR MVFR CEILINGS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT, REACHING 50-70% AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY. SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME W TOWARDS 00Z FRIDAY AND
THEN NW BY 01-02Z FRIDAY. -23
MARINE
BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS WITH A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS
10-15 KT EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TO AROUND 20 KT
EACH DAY. SEAS COULD BE CHOPPY AT TIMES WITH HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET BUT
COULD SEE SOME 7 FOOT SEAS AT 8-10 SECONDS. THERE IS A 30-60%
CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA WINDS FOR ALL
WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FOR
A STRONG EBB CURRENT AND CHOPPY SEAS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 4 AM
TO 10 AM. NOTE THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALSO REMAIN
NEAR THE BAR AS OF 11 AM THURSDAY, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. -19/23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ210.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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