871
FXUS66 KPQR 162124
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
224 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME
HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW 90S BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LOW WHICH BROUGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST, BUT THIS WILL BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, WILL SLOWLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR INLAND VALLEYS, LOW TO UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO UPPER 70S FOR THE CASCADES. EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO INCREASE BY 2-4 DEGREES F EACH DAY ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. /42
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOKING TOWARDS NEXT
WEEK, MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WPC 500MB
CLUSTERS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND PUSH INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 90S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NBM HAS TIGHTENED UP ON THE
TEMPERATURE SPREAD WITH EVERY SUBSEQUENT RUN OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH
MOST AREAS INLAND LOCATIONS HAVING A 45-65% PROBABILITY OF
REACHING AT LEAST 90 DEGREES F AND A 15-30% PROBABILITY OF
REACHING 95 DEGREES F OR HIGHER. WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 90S
ARE NOT AN UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE IN MID TO LATE JULY, THAT DOES
NOT NEGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS FROM HEAT. SO, FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES HAVE AREAS OF
MODERATE HEATRISK. OVERALL, EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. /42
AVIATION
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW, BUT EXITED NORTHWEST OR
AND SOUTHWEST WA EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
LOW MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINS IN PLACE BOTH INLAND
AND AT THE COAST AS OF 21Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER, CEILINGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW-END VFR FOR INLAND TERMINALS BY
APPROXIMATELY 22-23Z THURSDAY. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR MVFR
CEILINGS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 12Z FRIDAY AT KPDX AND KTTD, AND A
30-40% CHANCE AT KHIO, KUAO, KSLE AND KEUG. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
LIKELY SEE MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, WITH BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO LOW-END VFR THIS
AFTERNOON.
LASTLY, SMOKE ALOFT IS MOVING NORTH INTO NW OR AND SW WA FROM A
WILDFIRE IN SOUTHWEST OR BURNING TO THE NORTH OF KMFR. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A BROKEN SMOKE LAYER AROUND 15-25 KFT AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CASCADES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH
20-21Z THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING TO LOW-END VFR THRESHOLDS. CHANCES
FOR MVFR CEILINGS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT, REACHING 50-70% AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY. SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME W TOWARDS 00Z FRIDAY AND
THEN NW BY 01-02Z FRIDAY. -23
MARINE
BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS WITH A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTS UP
TO APPROXIMATELY 20 KT, EXCEPT UP TO 25 KT THIS WEEKEND TO THE
SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON (60-90% CHANCE). SEAS AROUND 4 TO 6 FT AT 8
SECONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 6 TO 9 FT WHILE BECOMING STEEPER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER
BAR FOR A STRONG EBB CURRENT AND CHOPPY SEAS THURSDAY MORNING FROM
4 AM TO 10 AM. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ210.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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