350
FXUS66 KPQR 171056
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
356 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BROAD RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY'S
SHOWERS LIFTS FARTHER NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES,
A DRYING AIR MASS, AND A STEADY WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
EARLY THIS MORNING, LINGERING LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S
ACROSS THE CASCADES.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS
EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. INLAND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY BEFORE CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S SUNDAY. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY COOLER
UNDER AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AFTER ANY MORNING
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL REACH ITS
GREATEST AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE NBM TEMPERATURE
SPREAD HAS NARROWED A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES, CONFIDENCE THAT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS
SHIFTED LATER. WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR REACHING 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY HAS DECREASED, THE POTENTIAL FOR 90 DEGREES REMAINS FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT OF THESE CHANGES, THERE IS
NOW HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
DAYS OF PEAK HEAT NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30-50% CHANCE OF
REACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN A 45-65% CHANCE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES
REACHING 95 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HIGHEST ACROSS
THE TRADITIONALLY WARMER VALLEYS. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
TYPICAL FOR MID TO LATE JULY, SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE WARM AFTERNOONS
COMBINED WITH LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL RESULT IN POCKETS
OF MODERATE HEATRISK, PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING OR PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXPOSURE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. AS A
RESULT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH NO
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON. ~12
AVIATION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARDS BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS OF
11Z FRI, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW TERMINALS UNDER HIGH-
END MVFR CIGS. EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS WITHIN THE AIRSPACE
THIS MORNING TO REMAIN HIGH-END MVFR TO LOW-END VFR UNTIL 18-20Z
FRI, THEN TREND CLEAR AND WIDESPREAD VFR. INLAND TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS, EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS BY 03-06Z SAT AS MARINE
STRATUS PUSHES BACK INTO THE AIRSPACE. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A 30-40% CHANCE OF MVFR AND 10-20% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER 03Z SAT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LASTLY, SMOKE ALOFT IS MOVING NORTH INTO NW OR AND SW WA FROM A
WILDFIRE IN SOUTHWEST OR BURNING TO THE NORTH OF KMFR. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A BROKEN SMOKE LAYER AROUND 15-25 KFT AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CASCADES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FROM NOW UNTIL 17Z FRI. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 3-8 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ~12
MARINE
BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS WITH A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTS
UP TO APPROXIMATELY 20 KT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY,
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE UP TO 25 KT FOR THE WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON. SEAS AROUND 4 TO 6 FT AT 8 SECONDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME STEEPER AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 6 TO 9 FT ON SUNDAY, BRINGING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER
BAR FOR A STRONG EBB CURRENT AND CHOPPY SEAS THIS MORNING FROM
4 AM TO 10 AM. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL CRAFT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FOULWEATHER OR LATE SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ~12/23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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