747
FXUS66 KPQR 171830 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1129 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BROAD RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY'S
SHOWERS LIFTS FARTHER NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES,
A DRYING AIR MASS, AND A STEADY WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
EARLY THIS MORNING, LINGERING LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S
ACROSS THE CASCADES.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS
EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. INLAND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY BEFORE CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S SUNDAY. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY COOLER
UNDER AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AFTER ANY MORNING
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL REACH ITS
GREATEST AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE NBM TEMPERATURE
SPREAD HAS NARROWED A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES, CONFIDENCE THAT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS
SHIFTED LATER. WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR REACHING 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY HAS DECREASED, THE POTENTIAL FOR 90 DEGREES REMAINS FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT OF THESE CHANGES, THERE IS
NOW HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
DAYS OF PEAK HEAT NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30-50% CHANCE OF
REACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN A 45-65% CHANCE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES
REACHING 95 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HIGHEST ACROSS
THE TRADITIONALLY WARMER VALLEYS. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
TYPICAL FOR MID TO LATE JULY, SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE WARM AFTERNOONS
COMBINED WITH LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL RESULT IN POCKETS
OF MODERATE HEATRISK, PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING OR PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXPOSURE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. AS A
RESULT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH NO
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON.~12
AVIATION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS AROUND 2000-3000 FT OVER THE PORTLAND METRO AND NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 12-17Z SATURDAY, EXCEPT A 40-50% CHANCE
AT KTTD.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2000-3000 FT BETWEEN 12-17Z
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AROUND 4-7 KT. -23
MARINE
BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS WITH A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTS UP
TO APPROXIMATELY 20 KT, EXCEPT UP TO 25 KT THIS WEEKEND TO THE
SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON (60-90% CHANCE). SEAS AROUND 4 TO 6 FT AT 8
SECONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 6 TO 9 FT WHILE BECOMING STEEPER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER
BAR FOR A STRONG EBB CURRENT AND CHOPPY SEAS THURSDAY MORNING FROM
4 AM TO 10 AM. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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