183
FXUS66 KPQR 192022
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
122 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON AN
UPWARD TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INLAND
AREAS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARDS THE LOW TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE COAST NOTICEABLY COOLER. HOTTEST
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST, AND
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS WILL BECOME A GROWING CONCERN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS BEFORE TEMPERATURES EASE SLIGHTLY LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD
NORTHWESTWARD, WHICH WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
PERSISTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, IT WILL ONLY MODESTLY
SLOW THE WARMING RATHER THAN STOP IT. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE EACH DAY INLAND, WHILE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
STAY COOLER BUT STILL TREND A BIT WARMER AS WELL. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOWS PUSH
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. ALSO, THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PUSH SMOKE INTO THE REGION AS WELL.
THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS THE RIDGE REACHES MAXIMUM STRENGTH.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MONDAY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS, WITH THE
COAST RUNNING AROUND 10-20 DEGREES F COOLER. AFTER THAT, THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASE AS MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES ARE
HAVING A CHALLENGING TIME DEALING WITH A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PACIFIC FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST LOW IN QUESTION IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
AROUND 35.53 N/132.06 W, WHICH PUTS IT WELL WEST OF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, BUT MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
TO KEEP ANY MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MORE
PROBABLE IMPACTS WOULD COME FROM WHATEVER REMAINS OF TS ELIDA AS
IT ALSO MOVES NORTHWARD AND INJECTS REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO THE BROADER PATTERN. IF THAT MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH, EVEN
SUBTLE INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER COULD HAVE A NOTICEABLE EFFECT
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD
COVER, SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD ALSO BRING SMOKE/HAZE FROM FIRES IN
SOUTHERN OR INTO THE REGION AND THAT COULD ALSO RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING. STILL, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THIS UNCERTAINTY BY CARRYING A BROADER RANGE OF POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, RECENT CLUSTER
ANALYSIS LOOKS TO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE DRIER SOLUTIONS WHEN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.
EVEN WITH THOSE DETAILS STILL BEING WORKED OUT, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN THE BROADER MESSAGE: TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
STILL FAVORED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
PROBABILITIES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD 90-DEGREE HIGHS
ACROSS INLAND VALLEYS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS DAYTIME
HIGHS, FOR INLAND VALLEYS AROUND 95-97 DEGREES F. NBM
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A 10-25% CHANCE OF DAYTIME
HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES F ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THAT THE REGION WILL VERY LIKELY SEE MULTIPLE DAYS OF
ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND VERY LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING, MOST
INLAND AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE HEATRISK. AS A RESULT,
HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY STARTING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO AREA, THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE (TO INCLUDE HOOD RIVER
COUNTY) AND KELSO/LONGVIEW, WA. ALSO, THERE A 35-60% PROBABILITY
OF MAJOR HEATRISK FOR THOSE TWO DAYS FOR THE AREAS DISCUSSED
ABOVE. SO, DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, STAY IN A COOL PLACE DURING
THE HEAT OF THE DAY, STAY OUT OF THE SUNSHINE, AND CHECK UP ON
RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.
AS THURSDAY/FRIDAY APPROACHES, GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TOWARDS A
MODEST WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AS A BROADER TROUGH BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NUDGES THE RIDGE EASTWARD.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE WEEK, THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY STILL RUN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH NO APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /42~12
AVIATION
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MARINE STRATUS LIKELY TO RETURN ALONG THE COAST AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE ON TIMING. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES IT COULD RETURN AS
EARLY AS 03-06Z MON WITH OTHERS HOLDING OFF UNTIL 08-12Z MON.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN, IMPROVING BY 17-19Z MON. VFR
CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 7-12 KT INLAND WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15-20
KT AND 10-15 KT ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WINDS
DECREASE BY 04-08Z MON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS 7-10 KT, DECREASING BY 06-08Z MON. -03
MARINE
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY TODAY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE FALCON. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT, WITH SEAS BECOMING
STEEP DUE TO A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL AROUND 6-8 FT AT 7-8 SECONDS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL BE IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE FALCON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH SEAS
BECOMING LESS STEEP THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SWELL DECREASES.
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. -12/03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ORZ108-109-111-112-115-119>122.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WAZ204>207-209-210.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ251-271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ252-253-272-
273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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