362
FXUS66 KPQR 231043
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
343 AM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON, BEFORE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHES.
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW STRENGTHENS, THOUGH INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WEEKEND WITH INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
TRANSITION THIS MORNING AS THE HOT AND MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
SETUP FROM WEDNESDAY GIVES WAY TO A COOLER MARINE-INFLUENCED
REGIME. AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION
EARLY TODAY, AND WHILE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST AROUND DAYBREAK, THE OVERALL TREND
WILL BE TOWARD WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND DECREASING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ANY REMAINING THUNDERSTORM RISK
SHOULD DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS TURNING DRY BY AFTERNOON
TODAY, INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS, WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS WELL. INLAND LOCATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON, SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM EVEN AS THE RECENT HEAT EVENT COMES TO
AN END. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 60S, WITH A MORE
NOTICEABLE MARINE INFLUENCE RETURNING.
FRIDAY APPEARS RELATIVELY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN, WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES NOT
CHANGING MUCH FROM TODAY. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD, A TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL REINFORCE ONSHORE
FLOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT SHOULD BRING A MORE
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND, MORE PERSISTENT NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUD COVER, AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INLAND HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY
SETTLE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED
OVERALL, BUT THERE IS STILL A LOW-END SIGNAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY
SUPPORTS THIS MORE SEASONABLE PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR A RETURN TO SIGNIFICANT HEAT.
~12
AVIATION...THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
RADAR AND SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS AS OF 10Z THU SHOWS DWINDLING RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END AS OF 10Z THU,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON UNTIL 15Z THU, DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.
INLAND, CIGS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER, LIKING BRINGING LOW-
END VFR/HIGH-END MVFR CIGS TO TERMINALS BY 12-14Z THU. EXPECT
ANY DETERIORATED CIGS INLAND TO SCATTERING OUT AND LIFTING TO
VFR BY 18-19Z THU. ALONG THE COAST, CURRENT IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN LIKELY LIFTING
BACK TO VFR BY 20-22Z THU. BY 03-04Z FRI, CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE BACK TO IFR/MVFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 30-50% CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS AND 10-20% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AROUND 03-04Z FRI TO
INCREASE TO 60-80% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND 20-40% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS BY 09-10Z FRI. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS OF 5-10 KT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTHERLY SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON FOR INLAND
TERMINALS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 15% WILL INCREASE
TO BELOW 10% BY 15Z THU. CURRENT VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO
HIGH-END MVFR BY 13-14Z THU, THEN SCATTER OUT AND LIFT TO VFR
BY 18-19Z THU. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 6-8 KT
BY FRI AFTERNOON.
~12
MARINE
BUOY OBSERVATIONS AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY SHOW SOUTHERLY
WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SEAS
AROUND 6 FT AT 8 TO 10 SECONDS. EXPECT THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DECREASE FURTHER THROUGH TODAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
STEADY WITH MINIMAL CHANGE.
SEAS DECREASE TO 4 TO 5 FT ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE, RESULTING IN BENIGN CONDITIONS. SEAS THEN INCREASE TO 6 TO
7 FT ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND
SEAS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN DECREASE ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
~12/23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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