702
FXUS66 KPQR 231807 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1107 AM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON, BEFORE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHES.
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW STRENGTHENS, THOUGH INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WEEKEND WITH INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
TRANSITION THIS MORNING AS THE HOT AND MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
SETUP FROM WEDNESDAY GIVES WAY TO A COOLER MARINE-INFLUENCED
REGIME. AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION
EARLY TODAY, AND WHILE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST AROUND DAYBREAK, THE OVERALL TREND
WILL BE TOWARD WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND DECREASING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ANY REMAINING THUNDERSTORM RISK
SHOULD DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS TURNING DRY BY AFTERNOON
TODAY, INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS, WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS WELL. INLAND LOCATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON, SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM EVEN AS THE RECENT HEAT EVENT COMES TO
AN END. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 60S, WITH A MORE
NOTICEABLE MARINE INFLUENCE RETURNING.
FRIDAY APPEARS RELATIVELY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN, WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES NOT
CHANGING MUCH FROM TODAY. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD, A TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL REINFORCE ONSHORE
FLOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT SHOULD BRING A MORE
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND, MORE PERSISTENT NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUD COVER, AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INLAND HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY
SETTLE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED
OVERALL, BUT THERE IS STILL A LOW-END SIGNAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY
SUPPORTS THIS MORE SEASONABLE PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR A RETURN TO SIGNIFICANT HEAT.
~12
AVIATION
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TERMINAL OBSERVATIONS AS OF LATE
THURSDAY MORNING DEPICTS BKN/OVC MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON.
AS DAYTIME HEATING PROGRESSES, WILL SEE INCREASED MIXING WHICH
SHOULD BREAK UP STRATUS AND IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATELY VFR
FOR MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH POTENTIAL
CLEARING AT KONP. ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST CONDITIONS MAY KEEP KONP
WITHIN MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER, THERE IS A 50-70%
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BETWEEN 21Z THU-00Z
FRI AT KONP. BY THE EVENING AFTER 00-03Z FRI, THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT IFR/MVFR MARINE STRATUS WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST. FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL NOTE THAT THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR MVFR
STRATUS ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AT ANY GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 10-
18Z FRI AS THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY, EXCEPT FOR INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
KEUG THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 19-20Z FRI. AFTERWARDS,
INCREASED MIXING WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LOW-END VFR STRATUS AFTER 10-12Z FRI WITH A 15-25%
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 12-18Z FRI. -10
MARINE
BUOY OBSERVATIONS AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY SHOW SOUTHERLY
WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SEAS
AROUND 6 FT AT 8 TO 10 SECONDS. EXPECT THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DECREASE FURTHER THROUGH TODAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
STEADY WITH MINIMAL CHANGE.
SEAS DECREASE TO 4 TO 5 FT ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE, RESULTING IN BENIGN CONDITIONS. SEAS THEN INCREASE TO 6 TO
7 FT ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND
SEAS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN DECREASE ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ~12/23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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