104
FXUS66 KPQR 232225
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
325 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES
TO BE IN A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH THE AREA WEDGED BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MORE BEARABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. ALSO
EXPECTING MORE MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST AND
CHANCES LOW STRATUS EXTENDS INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. FRIDAY
MORNING COULD START OFF WITH SOME CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS ON FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A MORE NOTICEABLE
PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
ONSHORE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN, BRINGING A MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING
TREND THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MORE MARINE INFLUENCE
AND NIGHT/MORNING CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARD NORMAL
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
INLAND ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS NO NOTABLE
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL OUTSIDE OF LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES HANG ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS FAVORS THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE PACNW
WHICH IN TURN WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE NBM 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE SHOWS AN 8-12 DEGREE
SPREAD FOR MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK, RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER
80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. THERE IS NOT A SIGNAL FOR A MAJOR
WARM-UP AT THIS POINT. -19
AVIATION
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TERMINAL OBSERVATIONS AS OF LATE
THURSDAY MORNING DEPICTS A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CIGS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON. AS DAYTIME HEATING PROGRESSES THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL SEE INCREASED MIXING WHICH SHOULD BREAK UP
STRATUS AND IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATELY VFR FOR MOST
TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH POTENTIAL CLEARING AT
KONP. ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST CONDITIONS MAY KEEP KONP WITHIN MVFR
CIGS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, THERE IS A 50-70%
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR THROUGH 00Z FRI AT
KONP. AFTER 00-03Z FRI, THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR/MVFR
MARINE STRATUS WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST. FOR INLAND LOCATIONS,
ONCE LOW STRATUS BREAKS OUT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS. WILL NOTE THAT THERE
IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AT ANY GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 10-18Z FRI AS THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY, EXCEPT
FOR INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KEUG THIS EVENING AROUND 10
KT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21-22Z FRI. AFTERWARDS,
INCREASED MIXING WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. LOW-END VFR STRATUS AFTER 10-12Z FRI WITH A 15-25%
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 12-18Z FRI. -10
MARINE
BUOY OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPICT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT AT 10
SECONDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY, A FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE WATERS AND RETURN CHANCES FOR SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, AND A 40-60%
CHANCE THAT THESE GUSTS WILL BE FREQUENT AND WIDESPREAD. AT THE
SAME TIME, SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-9 FT AS WIND WAVES BUILD. BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS QUICKLY WEAKEN
BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS FALL BACK DOWN TO 4-5 FT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
-10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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