765
FXUS66 KPQR 240516
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1016 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES
TO BE IN A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH THE AREA WEDGED BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MORE BEARABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. ALSO
EXPECTING MORE MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST AND
CHANCES LOW STRATUS EXTENDS INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. FRIDAY
MORNING COULD START OFF WITH SOME CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS ON FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A MORE NOTICEABLE
PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
ONSHORE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN, BRINGING A MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING
TREND THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MORE MARINE INFLUENCE
AND NIGHT/MORNING CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARD NORMAL
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
INLAND ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS NO NOTABLE
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL OUTSIDE OF LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES HANG ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS FAVORS THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE PACNW
WHICH IN TURN WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE NBM 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE SHOWS AN 8-12 DEGREE
SPREAD FOR MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK, RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER
80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. THERE IS NOT A SIGNAL FOR A MAJOR
WARM-UP AT THIS POINT. -19
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE TO HANG ON
LONGER THAN MODELS INITIALLY EXPECTED. AREAS OF STRATUS ARE
LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND A HINT OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST
NEAR KONP. EXPECT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER 06-08Z. ONCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SETTLE IN ALONG THE
COAST, EXPECT THEM TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. KONP HAS A
20-30% CHANCE OF NOT BREAKING OUT OF THE STRATUS AT ALL ON
FRIDAY. WILL NOTE THAT THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR MVFR STRATUS
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AT ANY GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 10-18Z
FRI AS THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS. BETTER CHANCES AROUND
THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH A 50-60% CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS AROUND KEUG. LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING WESTERLY
AROUND 5-10 KT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW-END VFR STRATUS AFTER 10-12Z FRI WITH
A 15-25% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 12-18Z
FRI. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 7-8 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. -19/10
MARINE
BUOY OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEPICT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT AT
10 SECONDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY, A FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS AND RETURN CHANCES FOR SMALL CRAFT
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY,
AND A 40-60% CHANCE THAT THESE GUSTS WILL BE FREQUENT AND
WIDESPREAD. AT THE SAME TIME, SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-9 FT AS WIND
WAVES BUILD. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
WINDS QUICKLY WEAKEN BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS FALL BACK DOWN TO 4-5
FT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
-10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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