042
FXUS66 KPQR 240945
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
245 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FINAL WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND, WHEN A PASSING FRONT WILL BEING CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY
A PATTERN TRANSITION
CONTINUES TODAY AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHIFTS
EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES. FOR TODAY, HEIGHTS ALOFT REMAIN HIGH
LEADING TO ONE FINAL DAY OF HEAT AS INLAND VALLEY TEMPERATURES
RISE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL SEE
MARINE STRATUS PENETRATE INLAND, ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WEEKEND, A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL OPEN
INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEFORE PASSING OVERHEAD
AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT, REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS
ON SATURDAY, AND NEAR-NORMAL ON SUNDAY. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW
AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT MAXIMIZED AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL RESULT IN MODEST CHANCES,
GENERALLY 15-25% FROM FLORENCE TO TILLAMOOK AND 25-45% FROM
TILLAMOOK NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON, FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, MOST LIKELY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN ACCUMULATION
WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT, 0.05 INCHES OR LESS. SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ON THE
COAST AND 20-25 MPH INLAND. STRONGER WEST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA GORGE MAY ALSO REACH 30-35 MPH.
BY NEXT WEEK, THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OF UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL
PLAINS LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT. THIS PATTERN WILL
FAVOR CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH A FAIRLY NARROW DISTRIBUTION OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE LEAD TIME. SHORTWAVES TRANSITING THE
REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING FURTHER
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST,
BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -36
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE TO HANG ON
LONGER THAN MODELS INITIALLY EXPECTED. AREAS OF STRATUS ARE
LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND A HINT OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST
NEAR KONP. EXPECT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER 06-08Z. ONCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SETTLE IN ALONG THE
COAST, EXPECT THEM TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. KONP HAS A
20-30% CHANCE OF NOT BREAKING OUT OF THE STRATUS AT ALL ON
FRIDAY. WILL NOTE THAT THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR MVFR STRATUS
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AT ANY GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 10-18Z
FRI AS THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS. BETTER CHANCES AROUND
THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH A 50-60% CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS AROUND KEUG. LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING WESTERLY
AROUND 5-10 KT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW-END VFR STRATUS AFTER 10-12Z FRI WITH
A 15-25% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 12-18Z
FRI. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 7-8 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. -19/10
MARINE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LIGHT
WINDS OF 5-10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT EARLY THIS MORNING.
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE (80-90%) IN GUSTS TO AT LEAST
25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED
FROM 8 AM THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY ACROSS THE WATERS, AND FROM 11
AM THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY AT THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. SEAS DURING
THIS TIME WILL ALSO BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 5-8 FT WITH A DOMINANT
NORTHWEST SWELL AT 8-9 SECONDS. BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
WINDS QUICKLY EASE DOWN TO AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SEAS TO 3-5 FT, PERSISTING THROUGH AT MIDWEEK. SEASONABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. -36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ251>253-271>273.
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