757
FXUS66 KPQR 270452
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
945 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NEAR-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING DEGREES OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL
BRING NOTABLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST TUESDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
THE LATEST SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST AND COAST
RANGE, EXTENDING WESTWARD OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. CONDITIONS ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR EAST OF THE COAST RANGE WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS DEVELOPING. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
OVER THE AREA AND BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO THE COAST
NORTH OF TILLAMOOK AND INTO PACIFIC COUNTY IN WASHINGTON.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE
50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MARINE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
IMPACTING COASTAL LOCATIONS BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE
PORTLAND METRO AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO START THE DAY.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASE SLIGHTLY, SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
80S FOR INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND 60S ALONG THE COAST. BY TUESDAY,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE WEAK BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
COAST, YIELDING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON THE COAST AND WITHIN
COASTAL TERRAIN NORTH OF TILLAMOOK, WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
AGAIN IN PACIFIC COUNTY, WA. REINVIGORATED MARINE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES COOL A
FEW DEGREES AGAIN ON TUESDAY, BEFORE HEIGHTS AGAIN REBUILD
ALOFT, FAVORING A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORKWEEK. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO SUPPORT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE NORTH OR/SOUTHERN
WA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS LEAD TIME. -19/36
AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE OREGON COAST AND ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A GREATER THAN 80% CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
INTO A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WHILE
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR FOR INLAND TAF SITES. WITH THAT
SAID, MARINE STRATUS IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT AND BACK BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER CEILINGS WILL FORM AROUND 4-
5KFT OR END UP BEING LOWER IF THEY DEVELOP. AROUND 30-40% OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT MOST OF
OUR INLAND TAF SITES DURING THE 09-15Z TIMEFRAME. WITH THAT SAID,
OUR BEST STATISTICAL MODEL SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AT ANY GIVEN HOUR ONLY TOPS OUT AROUND 10-20% FOR OUR
INLAND TAF SITES DURING THAT TIME. IF MVFR CEILINGS DO DEVELOP, THEY
APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 17-19Z MONDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY WITH AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AT ANY GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY.
MARINE
A WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST, BRINGING LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTH WA AND NORTH OR COASTS
THROUGH THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO
15 KT. SEAS REMAIN IN THE 4-6 FOOT RANGE AT 9-10 SECONDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SEASONABLE
NORTHERLY PATTERN BEHIND ANOTHER PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SEE INCREASING
CHANCES (30-50%) FOR PEAK DIURNAL WIND GUSTS TO REACH 20-25 KT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN 10 NM OF
THE COAST. SEAS OTHERWISE CONTINUE AT 4-6 FT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -19/36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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