370
FXUS66 KPQR 020452 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
952 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AND DRY MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH BREEZY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR INLAND VALLEYS AND 70S AT
THE COAST, RESULTING IN A MODERATE HEATRISK FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS. WILDFIRE SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEST OF THE
CASCADES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE
OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM...SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY EVENING, BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EXPECTED OVER INLAND VALLEYS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST OVER OUTLYING RURAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S, EXCEPT 60S AT THE COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY
ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTH WA/NORTH OR COAST IN THE MORNING GIVEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR SATURATION IN THE LOWEST 1 KM OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ON TRACK
TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN WA.
CONDITIONS THEN TREND WARM AND DRY ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AROUND 300-400 MILES OFFSHORE. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND VALLEYS AND 70S AT THE
COAST. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, MAINLY IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. DETAILS FOR THIS ARE
DISCUSSED BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. IT IS ALSO WORTH
MENTIONING THAT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OFFSHORE IN THE CASCADES,
WHICH WILL ALLOW AT LEAST SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE TO BEGIN PUSHING
WESTWARD ONTO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND INTO THE
FOOTHILLS/WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. THE RRFS
SMOKE MODEL BACKS THIS EXPECTATION UP, BUT ALSO SUGGESTS SMOKE
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY DENSE WEST OF THE CASCADES. -23
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MOVES INLAND. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND, THE RIDGE WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE SAME
TIME. THIS WILL PREVENT EXTREME HEAT WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE HOT WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR INLAND
VALLEYS AND 70S AT THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MINOR
HEATRISK AT THE COAST AND A MODERATE HEATRISK FOR INLAND
VALLEYS, BRINGING AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES
FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
PROBABILITIES FOR A MAJOR HEATRISK ARE LOW, RANGING BETWEEN
5-20% FOR MOST INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG WITH LOW
HUMIDITY WILL OFFER RELIEF FOR THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO AIR
CONDITIONING. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE HAZY SKIES DUE TO
LINGERING WILDFIRE SMOKE IN THE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
PUSHING WEST OF THE CASCADES BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP.
THE MAJORITY OF OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST DEPICT A RETURN TO ONSHORE WINDS BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL A
BIT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR INLAND
VALLEYS. THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK WILL ALSO
HELP CLEAR OUT ANY SMOKE AND HAZE LINGERING IN THE AREA FROM
MID-WEEK. -23
AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z MON
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AIRSPACE
WITH SCATTERED CLOUD COVER OVER THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST AFTER 6Z THROUGH 18Z WITH HOURLY PROBABILITIES
OF 30-70%. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT A GUARANTEE AS THE PROBABILITIES
ARE NOT PERSISTENT OVER PARTICULAR AREAS FROM HOUR TO HOUR. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INLAND BUT THERE IS A LOW
(20-30%) CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10-18Z BUT LIKELY NOT
PERSISTENT OVER ONE PARTICULAR AREA. PROBABILITIES ARE A BIT
HIGHER IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AT AROUND 60-70%,
MAINLY AROUND KEUG. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 16-18Z WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15-20
KT POSSIBLE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z
SUN. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. -19/12
MARINE
WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY INTO SUNDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. CHANCES FOR MAXIMUM
WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 21 KT ARE AROUND 85-95% FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST RELATIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. GIVEN
THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS, INCLUDING
THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR, STARTING MONDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ONCE
WE GET IN TO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THESE SMALL CRAFT CONCERNS
PRIMARILY SHIFT TO THE OUTER WATERS BUT LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
REMAIN AROUND 5-8 FT AT 7-9 SECONDS. ~12/99
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
PZZ251-252-271-272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
PZZ253-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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