923
FXUS66 KPQR 092109
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
209 PM PDT SUN AUG 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARDS AUGUST
NORMALS. RENEWED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SMOKE EAST OF THE
CASCADES, WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY TREND WARMER
LATER NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REACHING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID-80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, UPPER 60S TO MID
70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES. THE CAUSE OF THIS IS A
SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY ZONAL THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WITH MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST BEFORE RETREATING BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MARINE STRATUS WILL THEN RETURN BY THE EVENING AS THIS EBB
AND FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. THIS OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN GENERALLY REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A GENERAL TREND TOWARD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, THOUGH
CHANCES FOR RAIN HERE REMAIN VERY LOW (BELOW 5%). THIS COULD
BRING IN SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK, AS INDICATED BY GROWING UNCERTAINTY IN THE DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURE SPREAD INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR EXAMPLE, THE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES ON THURSDAY AT PDX RANGE
BETWEEN 77 AND 92 DEGREES F, WITH FRIDAY RANGING BETWEEN 81 TO
96 DEGREES F. THE CAUSE FOR THE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IS BECAUSE
ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE, WHILE OTHERS SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGHING PERSISTING
OVER THE AREA. LOOKING AT WPC 500MB CLUSTERS HAS AN ALMOST EVEN
SPREAD BETWEEN THE 4 CLUSTER OPTIONS FOR FRIDAY. CLUSTER 1,
WITH 29% OF THE MODELS SHOW VERY BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN CONUS. CLUSTER 2, WITH 27% OF THE MODELS SHOWS VERY WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE PAC NW. CLUSTER 3, WITH 25% OF THE MODELS
HAS A MORE ROBUST TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE PAC NW AND CLUSTER
4, WITH 19% OF THE MODELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING JUST
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. OVERALL, NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH NO SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION. /42-DH
AVIATION...THROUGH 00Z TUE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR INLAND TERMINALS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS BETWEEN 11-18Z
MON FOR KPDX, KHIO, AND KTTD, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A 20-30%
CHANCE OF MARINE STRATUS PUSHING UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND
BRINGING MVFR CIGS. ALL COASTAL TERMINALS ARE NOW VFR, BUT SOME
MARINE STRATUS LINGERS NEAR KAST WHICH MAY CAUSE MOMENTS OF MVFR
CIGS (40-50% CHANCE OF MVFR). CHANCES FOR MARINE STRATUS
REDEVELOPING AT THE COAST INCREASE AGAIN BY 03-06Z MON, WITH
CHANCES AROUND 70-90% FOR MVFR, 30-50% FOR IFR, AND 10-15% FOR
LIFR BETWEEN 06-18Z MON (HIGHEST CHANCES AT KAST). OTHERWISE,
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE
COAST AND UP TO 20 KT INLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASING AGAIN MON AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR
SKIES. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
11-18Z MON. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO THE EVENING.
~12
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT SOUTH
OF CAPE FOULWEATHER TODAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT,
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER AND OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FOULWEATHER UNTIL 2 AM MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FOULWEATHER
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TO 11 PM MONDAY. SIMILAR SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS MAY REOCCUR TUESDAY HOWEVER WITH MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE
(30-40% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 21 KT). WIND DRIVEN SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
~12/DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ253-273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ253.
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