304
FXUS66 KPQR 162015
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
115 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CLEARING.
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST, STRONGEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND UPPER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY. NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAINFALL ARRIVE
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
SEASONABLY DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MINIMAL WEATHER
IMPACTS. THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH BROAD AND RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE MAJORITY OF CONUS AND A WEAK, POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, MAINTAINING NEAR-NORMAL DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITHIN INLAND VALLEYS AND 60S ALONG
THE COAST, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
MORNINGS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST, WHICH WILL TEND TO CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL, PEAKING EACH AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE ALONG THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY, BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN WILL BUILD LATE
IN THE WORKWEEK, WHICH WOULD FAVOR A BRIEF WARM-UP ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHIFTING ONSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WINDS COMING FROM
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALSO INCREASE
TO 10-30% ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL RAIN AMOUNTS.
A WEAKER FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK WOULD HAVE A HARD TIME
COUNTERACTING THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND MAKE ACCUMULATING
RAINFALL UNLIKELY. -10/36
AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
NOCTURNAL MARINE STRATUS HAS
BEGUN TO ERODE, LEADING TO MIXED MVFR/LOW-END VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS INLAND AS CLOUD BASES LIFT ABOVE 3 KFT, AND
WIDESPREAD MVFR AT TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER
COLUMBIA RIVER. FASTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE (>90% CHANCE) OF
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 20-21Z SUN INLAND AND MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE (70% CHANCE) OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 21-22Z SUN AT COASTAL TERMINALS. RESURGENT MARINE STRATUS
TONIGHT MAY YIELD FURTHER MVFR CIGS AFTER 03-09Z MON, MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE INLAND. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO 5-10 KT AT
INLAND TERMINALS AND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE
COAST, BEFORE EASING BELOW 5 KT AFTER 06Z MON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW-END VFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH 20Z SUN
AS CLOUD BASES LIFT AND SKIES TREND CLEARER, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE
(30-50%) CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 06-09Z MON AS MARINE
STRATUS AGAIN PUSHES INLAND. DIURNAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RISE
TO 6-8 KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN EASE TO 3-4 KT THIS EVENING. -36
MARINE
A LARGELY STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUPPORTING NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 8-15 KT AND AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE WATERS, BUT CHANCES FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 21 KT REMAIN
LOW, ONLY 5-10%. BENIGN SEAS OF 3-6 FT PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. -10/36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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