674
FXUS66 KPQR 220930
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL SEND A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW. CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ALONG THE COAST, COAST RANGE AND NORTH OF THE WA/OR BORDER.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCREASING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST TODAY, SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
SUPPORTING RELATIVELY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH INLAND AND UP TO
25 MPH ALONG THE COAST. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WHERE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WA/OR BORDER. MOST LIKELY
TIMING IS BETWEEN 5 PM SATURDAY THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FAVOR RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND THE PACNW. WARMER TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MODEL SPREAD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE 10TH-
90TH PERCENTILES RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS. CLUSTERS FAVOR ANOTHER TROUGH INFLUENCING THE REGION BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT EXACT TIMING AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ARE
UNCERTAIN BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND SEASONABLE OR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE FAVORED. CURRENTLY, THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILES
RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE IS ALSO NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID WEEK TROUGH. APPROXIMATELY
20-30% OF MEMBERS SHOW VERY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE THURSDAY-
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. -19
AVIATION...THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRACKING TO
THE NORTH OFFSHORE WILL BRING PERIODS OF VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS TO
AREA TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ALONG THE COAST, WIDESPREAD
LOW STRATUS COVERAGE WILL BRING PERSISTENT IFR/LOW-END MVFR CIGS
AT 500-1500 FT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS TO THE SOUTH AT
KONP (70-80% CHANCE) WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY AT
KAST. PERIODS OF MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT COASTAL
TERMINALS. CIGS WILL TEND TO LIFT TO 1.5-2.5 KFT AFTER 15-18Z SAT
WHILE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 12-16 KT WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS LOOK TO TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS INLAND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 18Z. CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS ARE 40-60%, WITH THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY (KEUG) WHERE MVFR
CIGS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED. CHANCES ARE LOWER IN THE
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PORTLAND AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BUILD TO 6-12 KT WITH GUSTS 15-18 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE METRO. CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS
ARE 30-50% THROUGH 18Z. AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
AGAIN HIGHLY FAVORED AFTER 18Z SAT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
3-5 KT OVERNIGHT WILL BUILD TO 8-10 KT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. -19/36
MARINE
SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS TO EXCEEDING
21 KT TO THE INNER WATERS, INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INNER WATERS FROM 5
AM TO 5 PM SATURDAY AND FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 11 AM TO 5
PM TODAY. FOR THE OUTER WATERS, CHANCES ARE 20-50% WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES OF THAT RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 30 NM.
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY SUNDAY, WITH A 40-70%
CHANCE FOR NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 21 KTS IN THE EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. SEAS OF 4-6 FT PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. -19/12
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ251>253.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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