373
FXUS66 KPQR 251030
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
330 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS TROUGHING
SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
TREND COOLER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TROUGHING OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST WHILE A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC GETS SWUNG TOWARD THE PACNW
TODAY. THIS WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND IN TURN, DECREASE 850
MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 16-18 C BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS AND 60S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT ONSHORE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BY THE EVENING,
BRINGING A STRONG MARINE PUSH TO THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING WILDFIRE SMOKE
SHOULD SHIFT BACK EAST OF THE CASCADES BY WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE PACNW HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH
MOVES TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND. WEDNESDAY LIKELY STARTS OUT WITH
MARINE STRATUS COVERING THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WHICH WILL ALSO
IMPACT AFTERNOON HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW
80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. -19
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS HEAVILY FAVORING TROUGHING OVER THE PACNW
AND WESTERN CANADA WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES REINFORCING
THIS PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND
DOWNWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY WEAK
SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A CHANCE COMING ON THURSDAY AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND A BETTER SHOT ON SATURDAY AS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED. BEYOND SATURDAY, THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S. -19
AVIATION...THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST, SUPPORTING IFR/LIFR CIGS. THESE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO ENABLE MARINE STRATUS TO INFILTRATE
INTO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS
AT KEUG STARTING AROUND 12Z-14Z AND LASTING THROUGH 18Z OR SO.
STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COAST
MAY BREAKOUT THIS AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS AROUND KAST. CIGS AROUND KONP ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
IFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY
5-10 KT 12Z-20Z. ALSO, COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
STARTING ALONG THE COAST AROUND 16Z-20Z WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
25 KT. THESE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONGER MARINE PUSH IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND COULD MAKE IT TO MOST INLAND TERMINALS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. CHANCES ARE
25-50% AFTER 9Z WEDNESDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 5-7 KT. A STRONGER MARINE PUSH TONIGHT COULD BRING
A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. -19/42
MARINE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVER THE REGION. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS EXPECTED TO BE
5-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST. THE
NOTABLE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
FALCON NORTH TO CAPE SHOALWATER WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ZONE PZZ251
AND THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM TODAY. ISOLATED
SCA CRITERIA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY.
THE NEXT PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WHEN TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SEAS OTHERWISE CONTINUE AT 3-6 FT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. -19/36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ210-251.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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