126
FXUS66 KPQR 111032
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
332 AM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COOL NIGHTS
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MORNING FROST ACROSS SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND RURAL AREAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
TREND WARMER LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DEPICT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH CALM WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THIS IS SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
THESE NEXT FEW HOURS, MAINLY FOR SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL
AREAS OUTSIDE URBAN CORES. FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE, CASCADE FOOTHILLS, UPPER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH 9 AM
THIS MORNING, WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 33 TO 36 DEGREES WILL
SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT. ANYONE GROWING OUTDOOR PLANTS THAT
ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST DAMAGER SHOULD CONTINUE TO COVER PLANTS
OR LEAVE PLANTS INDOORS IF POSSIBLE.
EXPECT DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE AND EXTENDS OVER WESTERN OR/WA.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN OR/WA AND THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN THERMAL
TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THERMAL
TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ALONG
THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(10-20%) THAT PEAK WIND GUSTS TODAY EXCEEDING 30 MPH ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST TO PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH DAY. CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT AS MORNING LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S AGAIN.
WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORIES FOR THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. -10
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY
BY MID-WEEK, THE MAJORITY
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINING SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. WEST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER,
WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS A SYSTEM RIDES THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND HEADS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK FURTHER NORTH, PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA EXCEPT FOR A 15%
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. WILL
ALSO NOTE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO WARM OUR LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND REDUCE THE THREAT FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT.
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE GETS PUSHED FURTHER EAST BY UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING COMING DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING, POSITION, AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
TROUGHING AT THIS POINT, BUT WHAT WE CAN SAY WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS PATTERN WOULD RETURN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THE WEEKEND. -10
AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TONIGHT, CLEARING SKIES AND CALM
WINDS WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES FALLING TOWARDS 33-36 DEGREES F
FOR MORE RURAL AREAS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS. AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO
COOL DOWN TO THESE TEMPERATURES MAY SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT ON
METAL SURFACES. THERE IS A 15-25% CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN
12-18Z. IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY AROUND KUAO, KSLE AND KEUG BUT
WILL KEEP OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH
CLEARING SKIES BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 5 KT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KT
AFTER 18Z. -19/42
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL WATERS INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA
RIVER BAR FOR STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OF 6-9 FT AT 7-9 SECONDS.
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL SET-UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY, RESULTING IN
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
TODAY, AS CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 21 KT ARE AROUND 5% OR LESS.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT, BUT RETURN
NORTHERLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT WITH
WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KT. -10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ104-106-113-
117-118-121-123>125.
WA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WAZ205-208.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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