163
FXUS66 KPQR 141200 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
459 AM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
CASCADES, CASCADE FOOTHILLS, AND COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A QUICK RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
RADAR IMAGERY AS OF
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DEPICTS LIGHT RIGHT MOVING INTO THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND FAR NORTHWEST WASHINGTON. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING, THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE AT ANY GIVEN HOUR FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS CLIPPING PART OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST INCLUDING
THE LONG BEACH PENINSULA AND WILLAPA HILLS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES ON BOTH DAYS
FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS, AND AROUND 65-70 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS IS AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE OUT OF REACH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EUGENE IS THE ONLY
LOCATION THAT HAS A SMALL CHANCE TO TIE OR BREAK THEIR CURRENT
RECORD OF 81 DEGREES BACK IN 2002, AS THIS SITE HAS A 10-20%
CHANCE OF REACHING 81 DEGREES OR WARMER THIS FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION TO WARMER TEMPERATURES, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT
OF THE EAST ACROSS THE CASCADES, CASCADE FOOTHILLS, COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE, AND FAR EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO BEGINNING
TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRESSURE GRADIENTS
BETWEEN TROUTDALE AND THE DALLES PEAKING AROUND -5 TO -6 MB ON
THURSDAY. AS SUCH, THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS SHOULD EXPECT MAX
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-35 MPH, EXCEPT UP TO APPROXIMATELY 45
MPH ON WIND-PRONE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS AND IN THE WESTERN GORGE. BY
FRIDAY, PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLACKEN AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEYOND A FEW SMALL DOWNED TREE
BRANCHES WHERE WIND GUSTS ARE STRONGEST, IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON, WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
10-15 MPH. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN INCOMING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WHICH IS
DISCUSSED BELOW IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION. -10/23
LONG TERM...SATURDAY TO TUESDAY
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND BRINGS CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN. RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) BEGIN AT THE COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY FROM LINCOLN CITY NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES SPREAD
INLAND SATURDAY MORNING, PEAKING AROUND 40-60% ACROSS THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES, 25-45% ALONG THE I-5
CORRIDOR FROM SALEM NORTHWARD, AND 15-20% SOUTH OF SALEM. RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND NON-IMPACTFUL. CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRY
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY AS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND 50S ALONG THE COAST AND CASCADES.
MONDAY TO TUESDAY, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN BETWEEN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING
ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST (10-20% CHANCE), HOWEVER THE VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HOLDS RAIN OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
A MORE MEANINGFUL AMOUNT OF RAIN CONSIDERING HOW DRY CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN THUS FAR THIS OCTOBER, AND THE NBM CURRENTLY SHOWS A
30-50% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 5 AM PDT
MONDAY AND 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY. CHANCES HAVE COME DOWN SINCE
YESTERDAY AS THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW SHOWING A
SOLUTION WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FURTHER OFFSHORE
OR PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA, LIMITING THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN IN OUR AREA. FORTUNATELY, RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WON'T BE
HEAVY OR PERSISTENT ENOUGH CAUSE FLOODING. CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 10% WITH THIS
SYSTEM. -10/23
AVIATION...THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AS
OF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DEPICTS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST
AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. GIVEN THAT THIS
SYSTEM IS TRACKING FURTHER NORTH, CONDITIONS REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
DRY AND VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN
EXCEPTION IS KAST, WHERE CIGS ARE JUMPING BETWEEN LOW- END MVFR (1-2
KFT) AND VFR THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. AFTER 17-19Z
WED, CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KT TODAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN KTTD AND KDLS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. AFTER 18-19Z WED, HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT INTO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 4-6 KT. -10
MARINE
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO A WEAK FRONT, THEN RETURN NORTHERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4-7 FT THIS
WEEK WITH PERIODS OF 12-14 SECONDS. A STEEPER NORTHWESTERLY SWELL
ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, BUILDING SEAS TO 7-9 FT BY SUNDAY AND 10-12
FT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A 10-25% CHANCE FOR SEAS EXCEEDING 15
FT ON MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH OF CAPE FALCON AND
BEYOND 30-40 NM. WILL ALSO NOTE THAT THE LONG PERIODS FROM THE
SWELLS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THIS WEEK.
CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER. -10/03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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