570
FXUS66 KPQR 142210
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
310 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS A QUICK RETURN TO DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING DRIER.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION, WHILE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND INTO WESTERN
CANADA ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
MONTANA WHILE A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE OREGON
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW
WITH EAST WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES. WARMING ALOFT COUPLED WITH DRY, DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS, INCLUDING
AT THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES REACH
80 DEGREES, WITH AROUND A 10-60% CHANCE ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR,
HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER,
MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK ANY RECORDS (WHICH WERE
MAINLY SET BACK IN 2022). COULD BE OUR LAST "HOT" DAY OF THE YEAR,
AS WE TYPICALLY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
OCTOBER.
EAST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY BY THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE INTO THE EASTERN PORTLAND METRO
AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE TO
AROUND -5 TO -6 MB WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH,
EXCEPT UP TO 45-50 MPH ON WIND-PRONE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS LIKELY BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
EASING BY THE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. /DH
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND BRINGS
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. LIGHT RAIN BEGINS AT THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY FROM LINCOLN CITY NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INLAND
SATURDAY MORNING, PEAKING AROUND 40-60% ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES, 25-50% ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM SALEM
NORTHWARD, AND 10-20% SOUTH OF SALEM. RAIN AMOUNTS, IF ANY, WILL BE
LIGHT. CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY AS
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH. EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS AND 50S ALONG THE
COAST AND CASCADES.
MONDAY TO TUESDAY, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN BETWEEN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL, ALBEIT LOW, TO BRING A MORE
MEANINGFUL AMOUNT OF RAIN CONSIDERING HOW DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
THUS FAR THIS OCTOBER. THE NBM CURRENTLY SHOWS A 20-35% CHANCE FOR
AT LEAST 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 5 AM PDT MONDAY AND 5 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY. PROBS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS THERE ARE AN INCREASING
NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A SOLUTION WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS FARTHER OFFSHORE OR PROGRESSES FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CALIFORNIA, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN OUR AREA. CHANCES FOR
IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 10% WITH
THIS SYSTEM. DH/10/23
AVIATION...THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
ALONG THE NORTH OR AND SOUTH WA
COAST, INCLUDING KAST, CIGS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN HIGH-END MVFR
(2-3 KFT) AND VFR THROUGH AROUND 22-23Z WED AS A WEAK FRONT
BRUSHES SW WA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10
KT FOR MOST TERMINALS. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
BETWEEN KTTD AND KDLS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS
AFTER 06Z THU ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND COAST
RANGE INTO THE COAST. EAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KTS. THESE STRONGER
EAST WINDS REACH KTTD AFTER 12-15Z THU WHERE WINDS COULD GUST UP
TO 25-30 KTS. WINDS REMAIN NORTH 5-10 KTS IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 4-6 KT. -03
MARINE
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE TURNING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PASS
THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4-7 FT THIS WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF 12-14 SECONDS.
A STEEPER NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, BUILDING SEAS
TO 7-9 FT BY SUNDAY AND 10-12 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A
10-20% CHANCE FOR SEAS EXCEEDING 15 FT ON MONDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH OF CAPE FALCON AND BEYOND 30-40 NM. WILL
ALSO NOTE THAT THE LONG PERIODS FROM THE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THIS WEEK. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED
WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER. -10/03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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